A lot for Russia, and against Ukraine
1,620 Ukrainian casualties in one day. Many villages captured, and two towns close to collapse. Russia on the move, but is that exaggerated?
The new offensive is from Russia into the Kharkhiv Oblast (province). Most media consider the target to be Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city. Eventually, it could be, but that would take a major effort that Russia doesn’t seem to be committing to now.
Instead, they are probably aiming for a buffer zone so that Ukraine is less able to randomly drop missiles on the Russian citizens of Belgorod. It also has to stop the one thing the Ukrainians have recently been good at, which is drone attacking its oil depots.
Sure, Russia took a 100km2 yesterday, captured up to 12 villages, posted that Ukraine had suffered 1620 casualties (across the whole frontline), and that it captured 34 of them. There are also reports of Ukrainians abandoning their positions because, without support, they were guaranteed to die.
Blood, guts and territory clearly made it a victorious day for Russia. When the town of Vovchansk (17,459) likely falls this month, it’ll keep fuelling alarmism denting Ukrainian morale.
I’m just not ready to buy into attack on Kharkhiv city yet. And a buffer zone needs to be made all the way through Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts to Belarus.
Ukraine may be in a terrible position but has been for a long time. Their front lines have withdrawn instead of collapsing. Russia continues to have many small victories but hasn’t had a major since Avdeevka.
The attack in the north will challenge the already stretched Ukrainian army. This will give the Russians an opportunity in some places that have been mostly stagnant, possibly along the 150km stretch from Kupyansk to Siversk in the north-east.
50km south-west of Siversk is the major battle for the strategic point of Chasiv Yar. That will eventually be won by the Russians but a lot of people are dying for it.
The next Ukrainian town to fall will likely be Krasnohorivka. It lies west of Donetsk and previously had a population of 16,714. A bunch of nearby villages have been captured, and more will follow. It would make sense for Russia to secure this region before committing too big in Kharkiv.
The war carries on, one or a thousand dead soldiers at a time. A lot comes down to how long Zelensky can keep ‘making’ soldiers.
RUSSIAN MINISTRY DEFENCE REPORT (MAY 11)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
As a result of offensive operations, units of the Sever Group of Forces have liberated Borisovka, Ogurtsovo, Pletenevka, Pylnaya, and Strelechya (Kharkov region).
Russian troops have defeated manpower and hardware of 23rd and 43rd mechanised brigades, 120th and 125th brigades of the AFU and the 15th State Border Covering Force close to Volchansk, Vesyoloye, Glubokoye, Neskuchnoye, and Krasnoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 170 troops, three armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles.
In addition, one Czech Vampire multiple-launch rocket system, one French-made Caesar 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, one Bogdana 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, four D-20 152-mm howitzers, one D-30 122-mm howitzer, and two self-propelled launchers of the Buk surface-to-air missile system were destroyed.
34 Ukrainian servicemen have been taken prisoner.
The units of the Zapad Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and defeated formations of 66th and 115th mechanised brigades of the AFU, the 117th Brigade of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence, and the 13th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard close to Makeyevka, Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), Sinkovka (Kharkov region), and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
Russian troops have repulsed one counterattack by an assault group of the 14th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Olshana (Kharkov region).
The enemy losses were up to 300 soldiers, one tank, one armoured fighting vehicle, 10 motor vehicles, one Verba multiple-launch rocket system, two Msta-B 152-mm howitzers, and two D-30 122-mm howitzers.
Two AFU field ammunition depots were destroyed.
The units of the Yug Group of Forces have improved their position along the front line and also defeated manpower and hardware of 81st airmobile, 92nd air assault, 28th, 93rd mechanised brigades of the AFU and the 115th Territorial Defence Brigade near Andreyevka, Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, and Krasnoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
Four counterattacks by assault groups of the 33rd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, the 114th Territorial Defence Brigade, and the 1st National Guard Brigade have been repelled close to Belogorovka, Razdolovka, and Pobeda (Donetsk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 550 troops, four tanks, including three German-made Leopard tanks, one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, and six motor vehicles.
In the course of counterbattery warfare, one U.S.-made M198 155-mm howitzer, three Polish-made Krab 155-mm self-propelled artillery systems, one Msta-B 152-mm howitzer, two D-20 152-mm howitzers, and four Gvozdika 122-mm self-propelled artillery systems.
In addition, three field ammunition depots and one Nota electronic warfare station were destroyed.
As a result of successful actions, the units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have liberated Keramik (Donetsk People's Republic), improved the tactical position and defeated formations of 71st jaeger, 59th motor infantry, 100th mechanised brigades of the AFU and the 109th Brigade of the AFU close to Novoaleksandrovka, Vishnyovoye, Karlovka, and Rozovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
10 counterattacks by units of 92nd air assault, 68th jaeger, 142nd, 143rd infantry, 23rd, 24th, 47th, and 110th mechanised brigades of the AFU have been repelled near Ocheretino, Semyonovka, Solovyovo, Netailovo, and Berdychi (Donetsk People's Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 390 servicemen, five armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Paladin 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer, one UK-made Braveheart 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, one Gvozdika 122-mm self-propelled artillery system, two D-30 122-mm howitzers, and one Bukovel electronic warfare station.
The units of the Vostok Group of Forces have taken more advantageous lines and also defeated manpower and hardware of the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, and the 102nd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Ugledar, Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic), and Chervonoye (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 160 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one Grad multiple-launch rocket system launcher combat vehicle, one Polish-made Krab 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, two Msta-B 152-mm howitzers, and one D-20 152-mm howitzer.
The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have defeated formations of the 35th Marine Brigade, the 121st Territorial Defence Brigade, 3rd and 15th National Guard brigades close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region), Zolotaya Balka, and Ivanovka (Kherson region).
One attack of an assault group of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been repelled near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy losses were up to 50 servicemen, two motor vehicles, one Czech-made Vampire multiple-launch rocket system launcher combat vehicle, one Paladin 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, and one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer, one Gvozdika 122-mm self-propelled artillery system, seven D-30 122-mm howitzers, and one Buk surface-to-air missile system self-propelled launcher.
Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have destroyed one ammunition depot of aviation weapons of the Ukrainian Air Force, one workshop for the production of strike unmanned aerial vehicles, one division of the U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system in a combat position, as well as AFU manpower and military hardware in 133 areas.
Air defence facilities have shot down 46 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, one U.S.-made ATACMS tactical missile, eight French-made Hammer guided aircraft bombs, 43 U.S.-made HIMARS rockets, Czech-made Vampire and Olkha,
In total, 594 airplanes and 270 helicopters, 23,951 unmanned aerial vehicles, 515 air defence missile systems, 15,981 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,286 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 9,494 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 21,600 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
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Zelensky’s presidency expires on May 20. What next?
It’s an attritional battle, so capturing territory (which will be destroyed in the process) is not a priority. Keep grinding keep rolling the dice make the Ukranians who haven’t had any home leave since 2022 have to keep jumping up and running to their positions to repel attacks. Grind grind grind, you have more pepper in the grinder than they do.
There’s a lot to go through here. I did check out the story of the family with six kids. Between this and the music it may be a late night. Thanks.