Doubling down on death in Ukraine

"Over 50% of Ukrainians want to end the war", but this isn't their war.

[Correction: The problem with writing soon after an event is that facts cannot be guaranteed, especially regarding war. I initially stated that Russia used an ICBM but later Putin stated that it was a new IRBM. I have corrected the article.]

We've known, for a long time, that NATO is at war with Russia. Now it's official.

At the start of the week, we were told that President Biden had approved Ukraine's usage of US-made Army Tactical Missile System Missiles (ATACMS) into Russia. Additionally, Ukraine will be supplied with antipersonnel landmines.

Since Biden hasn't been a manager in America's empire for dementia's time, it's his 'advisers' who are the real middle men, and those who fund them are the decision makers. I'm not going down that MIC and banker’s rabbit hole, simply pointing out how ridiculous the responsibility narrative is, and informing you that it's appropriate to be anxious at the current escalation.

I wrote this update early morning, but checked the news before posting. Underscoring my concern, it was being mass reported that Russia, for the first time, fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine. In fact, it was a new intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM).

It was a warning to the West.

LANDMINES

The first casualties of the landmines are coming in fast.

First is the irony that Ukraine is signatory to the Mine Ban Treaty, that's the colloquial name for the 'Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction of 1997'.

The second irony was reported by Responsible Statecraft:

"Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the policy shift to reporters this morning during a trip to Laos, a nation which the U.S. helped turn into the world’s most bombed country per capita. Either blind or indifferent to the irony of making this announcement from a country where 30% of the territory remains contaminated by unexploded ordinance thanks to the U.S. military."

The third irony belongs to Canada. Under frontman Justin Trudeau, Canadians have had their quality of life greatly reduced e.g., property costs in major centres are up as much as 300%, and oil companies are favoured over the rights of indigenous Indians such as the Yintah. I mention that as prelude because liberalism isn't a political ideology, only a tool to be switched on and off as required.

Consequently, it's unsurprising that this North American country again showed its subservience to the American war machine when William Blair, its National Defense Minister, stated his support for the USA sending landmines to Ukraine. That's despite Canada having hosted and signed the Ottawa Treaty, the other name for the Mine Ban Treaty. Yes, Ottawa is the capital of Canada, so I know you're laughing shrapnel.

Boom, boom, boom! Three NATO countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - are hopping closer to their intention to retreat from the ban.

ESCALATION

There was the European demand and Russian expectation that the West would give Ukraine permission to attack Russia with Western long-range missiles.

The implication is that US ATACMS and UK Storm Shadows require experienced personnel and resources to acquire a target i.e., American and British troops will be directory involved in blowing up Russians.

Although lacking detail, on November 18 there was seemingly coordinated mass media reporting that the USA has given Ukraine the green light to use ATACMS.

On November 19, Putin attempted to head off the threat by loosening Russia's nuclear doctrine. In the 'Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence', the most notable of the 26 points are:

• Nuclear deterrence is also directed against states that provide controlled territories, airspace, and/or maritime space and resources for preparing and carrying out aggression against the Russian Federation.

• Aggression by any state that is part of a military coalition (bloc, alliance) against the Russian federation and/or its allies is regarded as aggression by the coalition (bloc, alliance) as a whole.

• Aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies by any non-nuclear state with its involvement or support of a nuclear state is seen as a joint attack by them.

• The key military dangers include: b) the presence and deployment by potential adversaries of missile defence systems, MEDIUM AND SHORT-RANGE CRUISE AND BALLISTIC MISSILES, HIGH-PRECISION NON-NUCLEAR AND HYPERSONIC WEAPONS, unmanned strike platforms, and directed energy weapons; h) actions by the potential adversary aimed at striking (destroying, terminating) environmentally hazardous facilities in the Russian Federation which could lead to technological, ecological or social disasters.

The same day, November 19, the UK followed its big brother's footsteps, approving Storm Shadow usage inside Russia.

On the 20th, Ukraine launched the ATACMS at Russia.

The USA announced the landmines and a $275m military aid package for Ukraine, including HIMARS rockets and Javelin surface-to-air missiles. It also stated the intention to forgive $4.65 billion of Ukraine's debt.

On the 21st, Ukraine fired Storm Shadows at Russia.

Both models would have relied on American targeting and programming. Thus, according to Russia's nuclear doctrine, it is now at war with NATO.

ATTACK & COUNTERATTACK

"This step by (US President Joe) Biden will not only escalate the conflict, but will lead to a greater reaction from Russia, and may bring the region and the world to the brink of a major new war." - Turkey President Recep Erdogan

Ukraine allegedly fired 8 ATACMS, at a cost of $16 million, with two destroying an ammunition bunker in the city of Karachev, Bryansk.

The Kursk region, where Ukraine invaded Russia, was the receiver of 10 Storm Shadows, valued at $25m, the damage yet to be known.

Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, described it as "a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia, and [that Russia would] react accordingly."

Russia responded with 120-160 drones mostly aimed at Kiev. That may sound massive but that was only preparation for an impending attack.

Ukraine claimed such attack was fake news, Russian propaganda meant to cause panic.

Thinking otherwise, the governments of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan sent warnings to their citizens in Ukraine. Greece, Spain, and Italy closed their embassies, and issued warnings too. The US embassy closed yesterday but reopened today. Germany's is offering limited service.

This morning, Russia fired a 9M729-Oreshnik for the first time. In English, it’s called The Hazel. It’s an experimental and powerful hypersonic intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) that’s nuclear capable. Carrying a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV), it split into 36 missiles striking the industrial region of the city of Dnipro.

It was obviously a message to the US and Europe.

Other missiles hit Poltava, Kremenchuk, and Zaporizhzhia.

I doubt this is sufficient for the US to not consider themselves having called Putin's nuclear bluff. Putin, on the other hand, isn't a mad man wanting nuclear war. That may mean that he will have to destroy something symbolic to Ukraine, possibly in Kiev.

THE BATTLEGROUND

"Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk Region, Kiev has lost over 34,390 troops, 215 tanks, 147 infantry fighting vehicles, 120 armored personnel carriers, 1,190 armored combat vehicles, 988 motor vehicles, 296 artillery pieces, 40 multiple rocket launchers, including 11 HIMARS and six MLRS of US manufacture, 13 anti-aircraft missile launchers, seven transport and loading vehicles, 68 electronic warfare stations, 13 counter-battery radars, four air defense radars, 27 pieces of engineering and other equipment, including 13 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, six armored repair and recovery vehicles, as well as a command and staff vehicle." - Russian Defence Ministry

The election of Donald Trump has meant Zelensky sending more troops to Kursk Oblast, the Russia region that has already taken many Ukrainian and Russian lives.

It's catch-22 in Zelensky needing to hold onto it as a bargaining chip if Trump follows through on his promise to end the war, and Russia being unwilling to negotiate until Ukraine has been expelled.

It's alleged that Russia has gathered a 50,000 army but that's as unconfirmed as Korean soldiers. However, Russia has committed more forces and is making headway.

Along the eastern front, from north to south, Russia continues to advance in Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and inland from Vuhledar.

"Over 50% of Ukrainians want to end the war", but this isn't their war.

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RUSSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY REPORT 20 NOV.

My thoughts are with the thousands of soldiers who will die in Ukraine and Russia today.

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

In Kharkov direction, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of the AFU 95th Air Assault Brigade and 22nd Mechanised Brigade near Liptsy, Borshchevaya, Chernoglazovka, and Volchansk (Kharkov region).

One counter-attack launched by the AFU 92nd Assault Brigade was repelled. The AFU losses amounted to more than 105 troops, two tanks, two armoured personnel carriers, one infantry fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, and one 152-mm D-20 gun.

Units of the Zapad Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 28th, 44th, 60th, 63rd, 66th, 67th mechanised brigades, 68th Jaeger Brigade, 25th Airborne Brigade of the AFU, 35th Marine Brigade, 119th Territorial Defence Brigade, and 4th National Guard Brigade near Lozovaya, Petropavlovka, Zeleny Gay, Izyumskoye, Novoyegorovka, Zagryzovo, Kupyansk (Kharkov region), Torskoye, Ivanovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Nadiya (Lugansk People's Republic), and Serebryansky forestry.

Five counter-attacks launched by formations of the AFU 3rd Assault Brigade and 14th Mechanised Brigade were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 420 troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, one U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzer, and one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun. Four ammunition depots and one UAV depot were destroyed.

Units of the Yug Group of Forces continued advancing to the depth of the enemy's defences and inflicted losses on formations of the 24th, 30th, 46th, 54th mechanised brigades, 56th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 46th Airmobile Brigade, 79th Air Assault Brigade of the AFU, and 37th Marine Brigade near Zaliznyanskoye, Nikolayevka, Annovka, Chasov Yar, Ulakly, Minkovka, Sukhiye Yaly, Kurakhovo, and Seversk (Donetsk People's Republic).

Two counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the 116th Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 500 troops, one Kozak armoured fighting vehicle, four pickup trucks, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzers. One U.S.-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar and five ammunition depots were destroyed.

As a result of active offensive actions, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces liberated Ilyinka (Donetsk People's Republic).

Losses were inflicted on manpower and hardware of the 100th Mechanised Brigade, 1st Tank Brigade of the AFU, 109th Territorial Defence Brigade, and 12th National Guard Brigade near Druzhba, Shcherbinovka, Dzerzhinsk, Zarya, and Sukhaya Balka (Donetsk People's Republic).

Twelve counter-attacks launched by formations of the 23rd, 42nd, 117th mechanised brigades, 68th, 71st, 152nd jaeger brigades, 425th Assault Battalion of the AFU, 35th Marine Brigade, and Lyut Assault Brigade of the National Police of Ukraine were repelled.

The AFU losses amounted to up to 390 troops, one Kozak armoured fighting vehicle, two motor vehicles, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, three 122-mm D-30 howitzers, one 152-mm D-20 gun, and one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer.

Units of the Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front line and inflicted losses on formations of the 33rd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, 113th, 120th, 128th, 129th territorial defence brigades, and 21st National Guard Brigade near Razliv, Velikaya Novoselka, and Oktyabr (Donetsk People's Republic).

Two counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled. The AFU losses amounted to up to 115 troops, one tank, one U.S.-made M113 armoured personnel carrier, two motor vehicles, one 155-mm Bogdana self-propelled artillery system, and two U.S.-made 155-mm M198 howitzers. One Anklav-N electronic warfare station was destroyed.

Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the 65th, 110th mechanised brigades of the AFU, 103rd, 126th territorial defence brigades, and 15th National Guard Brigade near Novopavlovka, Malaya Tokmachka (Zaporozhye region), Dneprovskoye, Nikolskoye, and Kazatskoye (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 80 troops, three motor vehicles, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one Anklav-N electronic warfare station, and one Plastun electronic reconnaissance system. One materiel depot was destroyed.

Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack drones, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces delivered strikes at infrastructure of military airfields, power industry facilities ensuring operation of Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, UAV depots, as well as engaged manpower clusters and military hardware in 139 areas.

Air defence units shot down four French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, one U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectile, and 141 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 648 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 36,400 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,397 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,490 MLRS combat vehicles, 18,248 field artillery guns and mortars, and 28,541 units of support military vehicles have been neutralised.

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MILITARY ANALYSIS

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GLOBAL WAR

On Tuesday, The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended to Congress that Taiwan be treated similar to NATO Plus countries for weapon sales. The following day, Taiwan signed a $329 million deal with the US for spare parts for its military.

For the 5th time, the USA used its veto to block a UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Palestine. Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's representative to the UN, responded that:

"We will continue to stand firmly for ending violence against the Palestinians. Without a shadow of a doubt, we will continue to expose the abuses and sanctimony with which the US is handling the situation. We will not allow the Americans to gag the entire council with their hands in an effort to encourage further continuation of Israel's ruthless operation."

The Cradle's headline is 'Russia boosts presence near Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to help Syria 'prevent escalations'.

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I’d meant to stay away longer but this week has been among the most important of the war.