Is the Cold War Heating Up Africa?
Making plans for Niger
Europeans and Americans are ironically fleeing Niger after a coup led by a USA-trained Nigerien General. France’s nuclear power is under threat and Europe’s gold supply is at risk. Innocent victims in faraway cities could be forced to shop for jewellery in the dark.
Western TV viewers are nodding at the thought of Bad Putin but not really caring because “Nigeria” is another “shithole country”. If they got the country name right, “Niger”, they probably still wouldn’t care.
We must explain that it’s another situation with the potential to affect our economic lives. If we’re better than that, we don’t want more people to die.
France has stated that its 1500 soldiers will not be evacuated. There’s no update yet on America’s 1100 troops and Italy’s 300. Germany’s 100 are claiming to stay.
We don’t need the war in Europe to spread to Africa. We don’t need a Cold War with hot battles like there were in the 1980s. We don’t need an increase in fundamentalist Islamic terrorism.
Get That Communist, Joe
"Growing crisis in Niger, where the country’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, was overthrown last week by his own presidential guard. One of the coup’s leaders, Brigadier General Moussa Salaou Barmou, was trained by the U.S., making the Nigerien coup the 11th in West Africa since 2008 to involve U.S.-trained military officers. The U.S. has approximately 1,000 troops in Niger, where it’s also spent $100 million building a drone base in its ongoing ‘war on terror.’ The Biden administration has so far refused to describe last week’s event as a coup, because doing so would force Washington to cut security aid to Niger."
The above is an introduction by Democracy Now to their fascinating interview with Professor Stephanie Savell (who co-directs the Costs of War Project).
The ideological conflict between West and East has been long-running but the current situation is more volcanic, like lava seeping from Ukraine.
The USA is believed to be putting pressure on African countries to act against the Niger upstarts but has yet to cut aid. For Russia, its an opportunity to expand its partnership after the successful Russia/Africa Summit held last weekend.
Where the Hell is Niger?
Those who can’t place Ukraine on a map and name its neighbours are less likely to know where Niger is. That’s the consequence of being black, and not enough in the West caring where their corporations’ political salespeople send bullets and soldiers from the poorest class.
Firstly, it’s not Nigeria, which lies to the South. Note the difference between Nigerien and Nigerian. I point that out in response to mistakes in the Media this past week.
Niger is a landlocked country mostly composed of the Sahara Desert. It’s as poor as sand but paradoxically named after the Niger, the largest river in West Africa (which runs through its tail-end). It’s surrounded by other volatile countries which - starting with Nigeria and going anti-clockwise - are Chad, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Benin. Several are members of the 15-nation ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States Commission) which has sanctioned Niger.
99% of Niger’s population is Muslim. Together with its neighbours, the population fattens to 360 million. The world would suffer if they went to war.
Power
There are several key figures.
Ousted President Bazoum is rich. In contrast, Niger is ranked 189 out of 191 on the UN’s Human Development Index. Most children don’t go to high school, partly because half the population is under the age of 15, and Nigeriens die 21 years younger than the French. The ruling class has not earned the good will of the miserable citizens it’s supposed to serve.
Omar Touray, the leader of ECOWAS, was previously Gambia's Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, its representative to the UN (United Nations) and part of its Permanent Mission to the WTO (World Trade Organisation).
Brigadier General Barmou, leader of the Niger rebellion, is graduate of training at Fort Benning and the National Defense University in Washington.
The President of Nigeria is Bola Tinubu. He may prove to be the most important person in solving or aggravating Niger’s circumstances. He got his degree at Chicago State University, worked for Deloitte, and became a corporate executive for Mobil Nigeria.
Rock the Casbah
The coup happened on 26 July 2023. President Bazoum and others were detained in the Presidential Palace by rebels led by Brigadier General Barmou, head of the presidential guard. Later, oil minister Sani Mahamadou and mining minister Ousseini Hadizatou were detained too.
Hundreds of citizen protesters were chased away with warning shots. The military was divided or confused, with some temporarily surrounding the building.
One of the coup’s leaders, Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane, gave a speech via Télé Sahel, the state broadcaster:
“We, the Defense and Security Forces, united within the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, have decided to put an end to the regime you know. This follows the continuing deterioration of the security situation, and poor economic and social governance.”
He was accompanied by 8 other officers representing the various arms of the military. The borders were closed, political activities suspended, and a 10pm-5am curfew ordered.
The following day, Niger's army command declared its support, issuing a statement signed by General Abdou Sidikou Issa, the chief of staff.
On 28 July, General Tchiani declared himself as President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. It’s meant to be transitional towards civilian government. The Council includes Issa and Brigadier General Moussa Barmou, the former head of Niger's special forces.
On 1 August, all borders were opened except Nigeria’s and Benin’s.
The mutineers allegedly closed a US drone base. If true and without gunfire, it may be a mundane order: “Don’t fly.”
In response to the evacuation of foreigners, General Tchiani stated that it makes no sense as they are not under threat. However, street crowds have chanted anti-French slogans, burnt French flags and half-heartedly attacked the walls of the embassy.
President Macron responded:
“Should anyone attack French nationals, the army, diplomats and French interests, they will see France respond in an immediate and intractable manner."
Echoes
Al Jazeera reported that what’s happening in Niger is an echo of recent takeovers.
“In the August 2020 coup in Mali, the soldiers behind it called themselves the National Committee for the Salvation of the People. ‘We are not holding on to power but we are holding on to the stability of the country,’ said one of them, Ismail Wague, Mali Air Force’s deputy chief of staff.”
and
“In January 2022, a group of Burkinabe soldiers calling itself the Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration or MPSR – according to its French language acronym - evoked deterioration of security, too, as they deposed President Roch Kabore and suspended the constitution.”
The Harvard International Review writes that ‘France Failed Mali’.
“Macron’s announcement explicitly named the primary reason for France’s withdrawal as the junta’s unwillingness to solve its growing security issues. Conversely, the junta blamed France for its failure to keep its promise in their partnership. They then reported that Mali had no choice but to seek other partners, referring to their hiring Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group…
Mali’s interim Prime Minister, Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, lashed out at France, claiming they had ‘stabbed [Mali] in the back,’ with their ‘neocolonialist, condescending, paternalist, and vengeful policies.’
According to some French, this point of view is not totally unfounded. General Didier Castres, a former deputy chief of staff during the beginning of Operation Barkhane, also found that France’s patronizing approach frustrated the Malian Government and local populations over time, saying ‘we acted like a big brother who would turn to his little brother and tell him what to do and not do. We’ve been the know-it-all trying to apply templates that weren’t suited to them.’”
Mali and Burkina Faso jointly warned that a military attack on Niger would be the same as attacking them. Algeria compared the possibility to “new colonisation” despite its support for Bazoum. All are against the sanctions by ECOWAS.
However, in an interview in 2022, Bazoum gave criticism that should be considered:
“We cannot agree, in principle, with military coups. This is because their occurrence complicates the situation of these countries and complicates our common combat against terrorism.
The fact of just announcing a coup in these countries deprives them of important financial resources. You have to understand that all three countries, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, are very dependent on exterior aid. Benefiting from this requires you adhere to a certain number of demands which are not compatible with a military coup.
When a military coup happens, and a lieutenant-colonel takes power, the first organisation that falls into complete chaos and whose structures fall apart, is its military organisation. And it is paradoxically at the moment it was needed the most. In Mali and Burkina Faso, the coups took place using the context that the civil regime was not up to the job of assuring the country's security. Now they in turn have absolutely no recipe for resolving the situation. Quite the contrary, they have put themselves in a situation that will reduce their financial capacity, in conditions where their armies have lost their structure, and have, as result, less chance to fight for security, because previously fighting on the front now they have left it to grasp power, to become President or become a minister.
They have left the battlefield completely to the terrorists. This is what happened in Mali... Today, over the several hundreds of kilometres of our border with Mali, we do not have a single Malian partner, military or civil. This is the result of the coup. There are people who do not know what is happening on the ground and they think they have solutions but show up without one viable solution at the level of governance or at the level of ethics.”
Russia’s Wagner Group could fulfil the security role but more about that later.
Killing in the Name
France was the main coloniser in this region and remained a major power through indirect means thereafter. Niger, like other previously disadvantaged black countries, remained Third World.
AFRICOM is the United States Africa Command, created under President George W. Bush. Its headquarters is in Germany so it could be described as an extension of NATO which, in turn, is an extension of the USA. It’s a military full circle.
Niger, like others, suffered from the disruption caused by NATO’s illegal war on Libya which led to its civil war and barbaric murder of President Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. Niger has had to deal with al-Qaeda, ISIS and Nigeria's Boko Haram which has been reason for the presence of American and French soldiers - the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) benefits from the disruption it causes.
Under President Barack Obama, a drone base was established in Niger, its purpose to assist the French in counterterrorism. It’s cost, so far, is $100 million. Niger obviously gets a cut through employees, contractors and graft. Green Berets began training the Nigerien troops, and another drone base followed.
This has reduced but not stopped the jihadist insurgency, nor addressed the extreme poverty of those beneath a corrupt elite.
Professor Savell says that:
“There’s a lot of factors at stake that make a coup more likely, but certainly the U.S. pouring all of this money and this kind of outsize reliance on the military as a tool for aid to these countries is a contributing factor.”
Niger is touted as a democracy but is shakier than the term suggests. Before the coup, it was on its 7th Republic since independence. In between those constitutions, there have been violent overthrows of its governments.
Shoplifters of the World Unite
Niger’s interim government is reported to have banned the export of uranium and gold to France. As I haven’t been able to find evidence of that, it may be propaganda intended to inflame the situation. That it would be fuel on the fire is self-evident from the facts provided by Simplicius:
“France is the #1 country in the world for total percentage of nuclear use for energy generation, and #2 in total number of nuclear power plants. I’ve seen figures that Niger supplies upwards of 40% of France’s Uranium, though some have it in the 15-25% range, as well as 25% to the EU itself.”
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce states that Niger has 420,000 tons of uranium reserves. It cares because they established a refinery there, relegating France to runner-up. Even before the coup, uranium prices were predicted to rise as nuclear power is becoming a more popular option than wind and solar.
China’s 2000km Niger-Benin oil export pipeline is currently under construction, and it also intends building a major industrial park in the capital.
The proposed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline will be one of Europe’s main concerns. Its construction was repeatedly delayed but became a priority when sanctions against Russian energy skyrocketed prices. Niger is meant to connect Nigeria with Algeria before the gas is shipped across the Mediterranean. The project is affected by ECOWAS sanctions on Niger, and by no one knowing who Niger will prefer to deal with in the future. Furthermore, it would likely have to be protected from terrorism by foreign troops.
Canada and China are major players in Niger’s gold industry. It makes no sense for Niger to ban exports without finding alternative buyers, especially since 500,000 people make a living through artisanal mining.
There’s also argument that France has controlled old colonies through the CFA Franc currency. 8 West African countries and 6 Central African countries use it, including Niger, Mali, Benin and Burkina Faso. What would be the affect on their economies if they stopped? Probably something disastrous.
Which Way Nigeria?
Andrew Korybko is a writer who generally favours the Russian view. He’s written a lot about the situation this week.
“The fast-moving developments since last week’s patriotic military coup in Niger strongly suggest that ‘West Africa is Gearing Up for a Regional War’ between NATO-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS and the Russian-backed de facto Burkinabe-Malian federation over that country’s future government.”
I cannot know if the coup was “patriotic” or opportunistic, but I agree with him that Western Media’s promotion of intervention by Nigeria and ECOWAS for the sake of democracy is as beautiful as an ostrich in flight.
It’s pragmatic that ECOWAS sanctions 90% of Niger's power supply which it receives from Nigeria. The EU, France and Germany has paused approximately $400 million in annual aid. The World Bank has paused operations, notable because "Niger has one of the largest World Bank portfolios in Africa, amounting to $4.5 billion covering the country’s priority sectors, and it has also received $600 million in direct budget support from the bank between 2022 and 2023."
But its feathery that ECOWAS never threatened Burkina Faso and Mali with violence when their governments were toppled.
Korybko points out a Politico article which quotes Ebenezer Obadare, from the shadowy Council on Foreign Relations, saying:
“Not only will failure to act send a signal that Tinubu and ECOWAS can only bark, but not bite, it will embolden military adventurers in other West African countries as well as the Russia-backed Wagner Group.”
Korybko then contrasts that with an Al Jazeera article, quoting that:
“Within Nigeria, Tinubu’s assertiveness is being perceived as an intent to shore up popularity abroad while he is increasingly unpopular at home. His victory in the February presidential election is being contested by the two largest opposition parties who cite widespread electoral malpractice and claim he was ineligible to run. A string of early reforms – including the removal of a popular fuel subsidy – intended to overhaul Africa’s biggest economy has also led to spiralling costs of living.”
Tinubu wouldn’t be the first politician to start wars for the sake of popularity but the Rally Around the Flag Effect is most associated with the USA. It will be harder for an unstable African country.
In ‘None of Nigeria’s Objective National Interests are Served by Invading Niger’, Korybko says that:
“Only NATO’s subjective interests would be advanced in that scenario, and particularly France’s. This Western European Great Power is struggling to retain its neocolonial influence in the countries that it used to rule...
Taken together, this major NATO member has self-interested military, economic, and strategic reasons for tasking Nigeria with leading an ECOWAS invasion of that country aimed at reinstalling its ousted leader on the pretext of defending democracy. In pursuit of that goal, the Mainstream Media (MSM) is spinning the narrative that Nigeria would gain from this as well.
The narrative stage would therefore be set for justifying the NATO-backed Nigerian-led ECOWAS invasion of Niger on multiple pretexts connected with the “rules-based order’s” worldview, thus enabling the aggressors to reverse the roles of victim and villain to misrepresent themselves as “heroes”. This is nothing but a psy-op though since the only threats that could conceivably emanate from Niger are entirely due to foreign meddling in its internal affairs and would disappear if this interference stopped.”
The possible invasion he references is a threat by the previously mentioned Gambia’s Omar Touray, the President of ECOWAS. Touray said:
“In the event the authorities’ demands are not met within one week, take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force.”
The deadline is this Sunday, August 6 2023. It’s a test for both Niger and ECOWAS.
From Russia With Love
Crowds in Niamey, the capital of Niger, chanted “Long live Putin” and “Down with France”. Some waved Russian flags. It may be that the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” but the anti-colonial and anti-French sentiment is a vein for Russia to tap into.
However, the Kremlin was restrained, calling for peace.
Putin’s answers at the press conference about the Russia-Africa Summit are relevant to Russia’s long-term attitude to Africa:
“A leading voice is very good, but a leading voice and a Kalashnikov rifle was way more efficient back then. This is why everybody remembers our specific aid to African countries in the struggle for their liberation...
We should use everything that has been built up since Soviet times, these very good, trust-based relations, and work in a new way...
For example, we have built many power plants, many steel works and infrastructure. These facilities need to be modernised, renovated and developed further...
Everyone remembers what happened during their struggle for independence. So these two or two and a half days, I should say three days, I was very pleased to see that… There are different people, of course, different countries and different policies, but in general the African continent is extremely friendly and positive towards us. This is an important foundation we can use to build business relations as well. Our trade volumes may be small, but the potential is immense...
There is a lot of demand for working together on security matters. Africa still suffers from terrorism. This is a challenge for many regions and countries there. We know all too well that stability at home is a must in order to promote economic development, while there can be no stability without security. It is for this reason that they want to continue working with us and are sincere about it. This includes military-technical cooperation. Outside pressure has done nothing to scare them away. They are working with us by buying our weapons, while dozens and hundreds of African military personnel are enrolled in the Defence Ministry’s academies. They come to Russia to study. This is also a major asset in terms of our future relations because military specialists return home having acquired and preserved connections, contacts and built a certain level of trust, while also knowing how to operate and fight using our military gear and equipment.
This makes military-technical cooperation and arms supplies the next step..."
Yevgeny Prigozhin is the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group. He allegedly tried to topple the Russian government yet met with a representative from the Central African Republic in St Petersburg during the Russia/Africa Summit last weekend. On 28 July, he was loudly divergent from the Kremlin’s calm voice. I couldn’t find the full text but from other media collected:
“This is nothing other than the struggle of the people of Niger with their colonisers. With colonisers who are trying to foist their rules of life on them and their conditions and keep them in the state that Africa was in hundreds of years ago. Today, this is effectively gaining their independence. The rest will without doubt depend on the citizens of Niger and how effective governance will be, but the main thing is this: they have got rid of the colonisers…
What happened in Niger has been brewing for years. The former colonizers are trying to keep the people of African countries in check. In order to keep them in check, the former colonizers are filling these countries with terrorists and various bandit formations. Thus creating a colossal security crisis
The population suffers. And this is the love for Wagner, this is the high efficiency of Wagner fighters. A thousand Wagner fighters are able to establish order and destroy terrorists, preventing them from harming the peaceful population of states.”
John Mearsheimer recently stated that, "When assessing the geopolitical landscape, the primary aim of any state, whether democratic or authoritarian, is to ensure its own survival. That comes down to military might and alliances."
CNN reports that on August 2:
“General Salifou Mody, one of the Niger officers who seized power in a military coup last week, visited Mali on Wednesday, according to the Mali presidency, amid speculation of a possible interest in the Wagner mercenary group, which has a presence in the country.”
I’ve long believed that democracy regularly fails because some cultures, or segments within a country, respect authoritarian figures. In England, there’s still many who believe that God should save the Queen. The Chinese are happier under Xi than Americans are under Biden. In my South Africa, democracy has never overcome tribalism.
Coincidentally, during brunch, I watched an episode of Indigo Traveller, a YouTuber who visits stressed countries. He was in Haiti, the ex-French colony that has never recovered despite being the first black country to achieve independence, and despite its proximity to the richest country on earth. People in the street complained to Indigo that the guns killing them are ‘Made in the USA’. He later interviewed a local journalist who said:
“Haiti should go back to a dictatorship. Democracy is not working at all. It's not benefiting Haiti in any kind of way. We need a strong leader, not a corrupt one, that will work with the international community and also with the oligarchs. And the oligarchs should know their places in this country: ‘You're involved in commerce, not politics.’ They should know their place, and they should be put in their place. ‘I will protect you to continue commerce in my country but do not interfere in my politics or there will be consequences.’ This is what kind of strong leader we need in our country."
This isn’t 2 Minutes to Midnight but…
A coup is an atrocity to our human right to choose our leaders, but it would be insincere to compare Niger’s democracy to Iceland’s.
President Bazoum was overthrown by General Tchiani last week.
General Tchiani prevented a coup in 2021.
Bazoum supported the 2010 coup against President Mamadou Tandja.
Tandja, in turn, supported the 1974 coup.
In the case of 2010, the military handed the country back for elections one year later. Whose to say that won’t happen this time?
The West’s threading of the needle in Niger will be difficult.
Bazoum may be the first Arab leader of Niger but, as I deliberately stated twice, Nigeriens are largely “black”. British mercenaries are not going to volunteer their free time to fight for them. America is not going to send $46.6 billion in military assistance.
But the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) will not want to give up on its profitable ‘War OF Terror’, nor will the USA want to disappoint its subordinate France (which has most to lose).
Because of the USA-led war in Ukraine and aggression to China, France has become occasionally impudent on the international stage. The USA needs to throw it a bone to keep it happy. Or at least support it whilst it bites.
The USA may wax lyrical about democracy but it’s well known that it has major dealings with fakes and dictatorships.
Russia gets blamed because journalists and social media are cheap, and the Public, those who will never be caught dead on a Substack like mine, are comfortable with pointing at devils in places they can’t find. Neoliberal war hawks jump at every opportunity to make money and claim exceptionalism. They are the ones wanting to divide the world, to make everyone hate Russia and China. The last time that happened, millions died in Angola, Rhodesia, Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia and many more.
Notably, the conditions of Bazoum’s detention have not stopped him from being in telephone contact with world leaders from the UN and AU, Emmanuel Macron, and Antony Blinken. He even received a visit from Chad’s President, Mahamat Déby (who also met General Tchiani).
The junta is obviously open to conversation and wants to continue relations with its neighbours. There must be ulterior motive for these facts being excluded from Western newspaper headlines.
Making Plans for Niger
In 1979, the band XTC had a hit with the song ‘Making Plans for Nigel’. It was about British parents choosing what their son should do, and wrongly believe that what they’re doing is making him happy.
I imagine that Nigel would have grown up depressed and eventually hanged himself after marrying the woman he didn’t love, having kids who hate him, a job he despised, and too many Sunday lunches with his parents.
Considering the current situation, I ask whose been making plans for Niger, and is that the reason for its current problem which should be looked at in the context of its never-ending problems since ‘independence’?
Hopefully interesting notes for those recognising or saying ‘WTF’ to my subheaders:
The Kavalier’s ‘Get That Communist, Joe’ is a ditty protesting Joseph McCarthy and his Red Scare in America in the 50s.
With ‘Power’, Kanye West rails against the white man’s control over him (and for the purpose of this article, I’ll ignore that Kanye is rich).
The Clash’s ‘Rock the Casbah’ is about a fictional Arab King banning Western music.
‘Echoes’ is Pink Floyd “addressing themes of human communication and empathy”. There hasn’t been enough of that between the West and Africa.
Rage Against the Machine’s ‘Killing in the Name’ protests racism and unjust authority.
‘Shoplifters of the World Unite’ is a song by The Smiths. SongFacts explains that “The title alludes to the communist slogan ‘workers of the world, unite!’ Morrissey [the lyricist] has explained the meaning of the song as: ‘More or less spiritual shoplifting, cultural shoplifting, taking things and using them to your own advantage.’"
‘Which Way Nigeria’ is a 1984 song by Sonny Okosun. In it, he professes his love for his country but worries that its going to die from corruption and the oil boom. “This song was released when things were much better than they are today,” says a 2021 commentator on YouTube.
Matt Monro may have sung for the Bond movie, ‘From Russia with Love’, but the theme song is better for me imagining Prigozhin doing the waltz.
With ‘2 Minutes to Midnight’, Iron Maiden warns that the hands of the Doomsday Clock are close to nuclear war. Did you watch ‘Oppenheimer’? Wow. It’s got me rewatching all Nolan brother’s movies.