Results of the South African Election 2024
But it's only the beginning of the political game of musical chairs...
99% of the South African vote has been counted which is enough for us to know how this turns out.
It was an interesting election. That’s substantiated by 18 parties entering Parliament (which is 4 more than there were).
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) suffered glitches which meant long queues in some areas. Having to accomplish more with their mysteriously slashed budget makes forgiveness easy, but first they must overcome claims of fraudulent results, and explain how the election board crashed (and prove that no changes were made during that period).
The biggest failure for democracy was a poor turnout. Only 16 million voted. 25 million did not. That isn't a fault of the People but of Government that has failed us so miserably as to kill hope, especially in the 18-34 age group where half are unemployed.
I will never vote until there’s a party fighting our #1 problem which is corruption. Instead, again, they were all willing to flush morals in the greedy hope of votes and coalitions for personal positions.
Consequently and conversely, South African's lack of faith in politicians was voted for.
The callously entertaining part of the election is the wheeling and dealing for power. There will me more now than ever in the history of South Africa's democracy (which supposedly began in 1994).
With CSIR's mathematical model, we can see tomorrow, towards something exact or within a fraction of the final figures. I'll adjust the following when the finals arrive.
NATIONAL
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY SEAT PROJECTIONS (400 SEATS)
400 positions will rule us all.
The African National Congress (ANC) lost so many seats that musical chairs will be more like bloodsport.
The USA, UK and Germany's favourite, the Democratic Alliance (DA), surprisingly managed to gain 87, but that's still below the 89 they had in 2014. Their 1% increase since 2019 is ridiculous considering they received less votes. This dawdling over three elections suggests, again, they've reached their ceiling. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Helen Zille, their leader/dictator, eventually quits.
As the third largest party, newcomers uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) will be dancing on the ceiling, but most of the dancers will be unknown to the Public.
The fire in the Economic Freedom Fighters' (EFF) socialist rhetoric becomes an ember as their election on election rise becomes a decline of 5 seats.
ActionSA, BOSA, and Rise Mzanzi are the splinters of the DA, and babies of the billionaires influencing South Africa. They received an extraordinary amount of media coverage that could only have been manufactured and biased. Collectively, they only got only 1.9% but their 10 seats gets them in the game, and the tens of millions they cost will be considered worth it. They undoubtedly kidnapped some of the black voters escaping the DA, and will now use them to vote with the DA. It's a joke that no one will laugh at, and those who voted for them will pretend their manipulation doesn't exist.
After MK, the Patriotic Alliance was the biggest winner. 2% may not seem like a lot, but the future will see them become kingmaker in many towns, and play a bigger role in the province of the Western Cape. The source of the Patriotic Alliance's funding remains mysterious but they kept the same company as the billionaires babies whilst marketing themselves as something different. But their love for Israel and the free market makes them more DA than anything else. It's possible that they were meant to capture the DA's fleeing coloured voters, but hiccuped when their leaders, Gayton McKenzie (PA) and Helen Zille (DA), didn't get along. Let’s hope that the PA becomes opposition. The Western Cape needs a fight.
The 'revolution' may have ended for a second time, but it’s still the ANC’s show. They may have spectacularly lost their majority, but there's no way they are going to relinquish 30 years of ruling South Africa's quasi-democracy. All their choices of partners suck for them, but having choices is everything.
Zuma and Ramaphosa, once President and Deputy President, are rivals. Nevertheless, the ANC working with Zuma's MK would be the less tricky path forward. Zuma never gave up his ANC membership, and the ANC never took it from him when he erected a rival party. That bizarre circumstance exists to be an option for this moment. MK may coalition but would unlikely be subsumed because Zulu tribal pride is responsible for a lot of MK votes. Zuma may cast his lot in with the ANC so long as they give him control of the province of KwaZulu-Natal. In return, the ANC will get Gauteng (which includes Johannesburg and Pretoria).
The very awkward but possible option that will keep the ANC in the driver's seat most of the time is for it to work with an umbrella of many smaller parties such as the IFP, PA, FF+, UDM, ATM, GOOD, NFP, Al Jama-ah etc. The challenge with playing with so many is that it's easier to be blackmailed or sabotaged. The trick is to offer such good positions that loyalty is ensured, and to allow those parties to thrive in those positions so that their constituents are satisfied with the arrangement. The downside is that every position given will mean an angry ANC senior, a slippery slope considering they’ve already lost 71 seats (and R1-million salaries each, plus the more valuable patronage network flowing from them).
The DA would absolutely betray their current partners and self-proclaimed liberal values to coalition with Ramaphosa's version of the ANC, their ideological opposite that they've pretended to fight for so long. However, the ANC is split between those who support Ramaphosa and those who want Jacob Zuma to return. It would be a major clash between those who want to work for the USA, and those who want a good relationship with China and Russia. How could supporters of Israel work with fans of Israel etc.?
The EFF made great demands of the ANC before the election, at the possibility of coalition. I take that as a pinch of salt (with a tequila). Shouting for the Public isn't reality. The EFF would make a deal for more power, especially now that they've dropped to fourth-largest party, and have to compete with MK for future attention. The problem is that EFF would likely radicalise the younger leaders of the ANC, and thus be considered a threat by ANC elders.
A fiery question is the fate of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
Under his leadership, the ANC has plummeted (along with the country). Nevertheless, he remains Capitalism's darling.
It's a bittersweet moment because his failure is an excuse to retire and enjoy his riches. But will his Western corporate backers, who made him a billionaire, want him to retire when all those wanting his throne aren't desirable?
None of that would be relevant if the ANC made a deal with MK because Zuma's condition, after control of KwaZulu-Natal, would likely be Ramaphosa's removal.
PROVINCIAL
Before I give you the results of the provinces, what my American readers call states, I want to briefly mention the Western Cape. It's capital Cape Town is the party destination for rich foreigners, and the DA's seat of power.
It's going to be crazy in the build-up to municipal elections in 2026 which will give smaller parties kingmaker powers in hung councils.
That intensity begins now with provincial outcomes finding the PA at 7.8%, and the Cape Coloured Congress (CCC) at 2.4%. Both aim at coloured citizens, and scored from the ANC's loss. Al Jama-ah has also increased its share.
The DA, with majority control of the legislature, will continue to be an obstacle to fair discussion of issues but it will be harder for them to do so with the opposition having a louder voice (and much louder personalities).
The ANC, in conspiratorial fashion, never acted as opposition to the DA, except on paper. It gave DA corruption a free ride, amplifying the belief that they have similar funders. In contrast, the coloured community has been downtrodden for centuries. They now have a chance at being seen.
Secessionists received more attention than in previous years, but got far less votes than the signatures they had to present to qualify for the election. The Referendum Party (RP) and United Independent Movement (UIM) will be wondering what happened! It may be that hearts dream of their own country, whereas minds don't see it as realistic. I'm sure The Cape Independent will explain more once emotions have died down. My assessment is that aligning with the DA made them fools. They sold out the people of the Cape before they got the land.
The final issue is alleged election fraud. There are complaints in Cape Town of uncounted ballot boxes, and altered voting tallies. It's possible that many parties will be uniting to taking the Electoral Commission to Court.
EASTERN CAPE
ANC 62.38%
DA 14.89%
EFF 10.2%
UDM 3.55%
PA 2.37%
FREE STATE
ANC 52.56%
DA 21.52%
EFF 13.95%
VF+ 3.1%
MK 2.24%
GAUTENG
ANC 34.56%
DA 27.23%
EFF 12.92%
MK 9.77%
ACTIONSA 4.06%
KWAZULU-NATAL
MK 44.91%
IFP 18.28%
ANC 17.22%
DA 13.46%
EFF 2.38%
LIMPOPO
ANC 73.38%
EFF 13.99%
DA 5.95%
VF+ 1.14%
MK 0.87%
MPUMALANGA
ANC 51.25%
MK 16.79%
EFF 14.04%
DA 11.95%
VF+ 1.59%
NORTH WEST
ANC 58.28%
EFF 17.34%
DA 12.95%
VF+ 2.77%
MK 2.05%
NORTHERN CAPE
ANC 49.47%
DA 20.94%
EFF 13.23%
PA 8.6%
VF PLUS 1.94%
WESTERN CAPE
DA 53.41%
ANC 19.79%
PA 7.84%
EFF 5.4%
CCC 2.4%
Now I take my break from politics…
Interesting summary, Mike. Given my ignorance of most South African politics I don't have much to say except this stood out to me: "The biggest failure for democracy was a poor turnout. Only 15 million voted. 25 million did not. That isn't a fault of the People but of Government that has failed us so miserably as to kill hope, especially in the 18-34 age group where half are unemployed."
In the US a third of the eligible voters do not vote and many who do vote do so with all the enthusiasm of going in for a rectal exam. As western "Democratic" governments are more and more hijacked and tuned to the whims of the wealthy, more and more voters are seeing that elections are increasingly irrelevant.
A Democratic consulting group poll of young Americans that went unnoticed by our corporate media is very telling...
"Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born, according to new polling from Democratic firm Blueprint obtained exclusively by Semafor."
The particulars are interesting and you can link to the story, but I thought the conclusion the pollster came up with summarizes the view of most voters across the west: "They see a dying empire led by bad people.”
A perfect summary in only nine words and even though I am far away from the age demographic of the poll, I agree with it completely.
Here's the link to the story: https://www.semafor.com/article/05/28/2024/a-dying-empire-led-by-bad-people-poll-finds-young-voters-despairing-over-us-politics
Excellent analysis as ever...few outside SA understand why and how it's a major chip in the great game, hence the turbulent backdrop to the recent moves of its judiciary.