Russia/Ukraine Update: 3 Jan 2024
It’s been a tumultuous, bloody, and fear-inducing week for both countries.
“The reason the Russians are better than the West in Ukraine is that they see the conflict as a process; whereas we see it as a series of separate actions. The Russians see events as a film. We see them as photographs. They see the forest, while we focus on the trees. That is why we place the start of the conflict on February 24, 2022, or the start of the Palestinian conflict on October 7, 2023. We ignore the contexts that bother us and wage conflicts we do not understand. That is why we lose our wars.” - extract from Colonel Jacques Baud's book ‘The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat’
This past week, Russia launched its biggest missile and drone attacks, Ukraine targeted civilians in Belgorod, and Russia replied with hypersonic missiles.
Oddly, the latter two attacks happened in daylight, possibly so that they were more witnessed.
Some of those Ukrainian civilians will have been killed by their country’s own defence system, and Russian missiles it diverted or splintered. Any bystander killed anywhere is tragic but let’s not forget thousands of soldiers dying i.e., not long ago, most of the approximate one million on the frontline were called civilians too.
It’s a Russian victory because they’ll have destroyed many targets, and indirectly caused fear. Ukraine hit innocents but was directly successful in causing public fear.
Russia is not invincible, and Ukraine’s air defence system is failing. Ukraine is in for its worst year, and Zelensky will be fearing his own people. Fear always plays a starring role in war.
Avdeevka will be the next major city to fall. Other places that may enter our conquered lexicon in 2024 are Chasiv Yar, Siversk, Bilohorivka, Krasnohorivka, Lyman and Kupyansk. The Russians may finally make a successful plan for Vuhledar, and will undoubtedly continue using the terrifying TOS-1A Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower shown at the top of this page.
2025 could be about Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the final securing of the Donbas province. I don’t know if Kharkiv will be a major sum in the equation.
At least two years of war ahead unless politics - maybe in the form of a bribe, coup or death of a political leader – results in a peace agreement.
Sometimes millions of people just need a reason to switch their position and say, “No more.” Similarly, experienced Ukrainian soldiers could surrender to the point where they cannot be replaced.
The simplest possible end is if the world enters a recession that results in further instability in the USA, EU and UK. That may cause the politicians to focus on the present instead of the futures they were buying in Ukraine, and the investment opportunities they envisioned in a chopped-up Russia. Cutting the money taps to Ukraine would force peace.
Russia offered peace multiple times and was rejected. If Putin’s in good health, I doubt he’d accept peace without the territorial concession of Kherson and Odessa. He’d want to secure the Russian-speaking people there and rescue Transnistria from isolation (as well as build air defences as NATO). He’d also want that as reparations for his dead soldiers. Then there’s the big issue of Russia’s $300bn that the West has stolen.
On the battlefront, the most hyped events are Russia destroying an American HIMARS missile system west of Donetsk, and two Leopard tanks near Lyman.
In Kyiv, later this week, real feel temperatures will drop to -10°C (14°F).
I’m tired of following this for hours daily for two years. I can only imagine how terrible it is for every Ukrainian, and the Russian soldiers and their families.
My disgust for American imperialism is deep.
RUSSIAN DEFENCE REPORT
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a group strike with high-precision long-range weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine that carried out orders for the production of missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and repair of weapons and military hardware in Kiev and its suburbs, as well as storage sites for missiles, ammunition, and aircraft weapons supplied to the Kiev regime by Western countries. The purpose of the strike has been achieved. All the targets have been engaged.
In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces, ground-attack aircraft, helicopters, and artillery repelled six attacks launched by the assault groups of the 21st, 60th, 115th mechanised, and 95th air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Sinkovka and Terny (Kharkov region).
The units of the 4th tank, 14th, 44th mechanised brigades and the 103rd Territorial Defence Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit close to Petropavlovka, Vishnyovoye, and Peschanoye (Kharkov region).
As a result, over 115 troops, three tanks, nine motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system,and one D-30 howitzer were neutralised.
In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by artillery and aviation inflicted fire damage on clusters of manpower and military hardware of the 63rd Mechanised Brigade, 5th National Guard Brigade, 100th and 125th Territorial Defenсe Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as Serebryansky forestry.
The enemy's losses amounted to 90 troops, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, 12 motor vehicles, as well as one D-30 howitzer.
In Donetsk direction, the coordinated actions of the Yug Group of Forces, strikes of Operational-Tactical Aviation, and artillery fire repelled the enemy's attack close to Artyomovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
Units of the 42nd mechanised, 46th airmobile, 80th air assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 112th Territorial Defence Brigade were hit close to Andreyevka, Bogdanovka, Georgiyevka, Kurdyumovka, and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic).
The total enemy losses amounted to 300 troops killed and wounded, three tanks, one infantry fighting vehicle, three pick-up trucks, and 19 motor vehicles.
In addition, during the counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops struck one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery gun, one Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, two Giatsint-B howitzers, one D-20 gun, one D-30 howitzer, one U.S.-made M119 towed howitzer, and one Rapira ATGM system.
Ammunition depots of the 27th rocket artillery and 47th mechanised brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were obliterated close to Lysovka and Zhelannoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
In South-Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces, supported by air strikes and artillery fire, struck the manpower and military hardware of the 79th Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Novomikhailovka and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
The daily losses of the enemy in this direction amounted to 140 troops, three motor vehicles.
During the counter-battery warfare, the Russian troops hit two U.S.-made M777 artillery systems, three self-propelled artillery systems (two U.S.-made M109 Paladin, and one Polish-made Krab), one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and one D-20 gun.
In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces repelled one attack launched by assault groups of the 117th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine north of Novoprokopovka (Zaporozhye region), and also inflicted fire damage on the 33rd, 65th Mechanised, 82nd Air Assault, and 128th Mountain Assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine close to Verbovoye and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy's losses amounted to more than 50 troops, two armored fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, two D-30 howitzers, and one D-20 howitzer.
In Kherson direction, as a result of coordinated actions of the Dnepr Group of Forces and systematic fire exposure, up to 20 troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, three motor vehicles, as well as one D-30 howitzer were neutralised during the day.
Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have hit 112 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy manpower and hardware in 137 areas.
Russia's air defence systems have intercepted 11 HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles during the day.
Moreover, 34 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Pologi, Gulyai Pole, Basan (Zaporozhye region), Lisichansk, Kremennaya, Svatovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Vodyanoye and Panteleymonovka (Donetsk People's Republic).
In total, 565 airplanes and 263 helicopters, 10,352 unmanned aerial vehicles, 445 air defence missile systems, 14,434 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,194 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,611 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 16,976 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
MILITARY ANALYSIS
Today, it’s more important for you to find the time to watch.
NEWS LINKS
West moves closer to seizing Russia’s frozen $300bn of reserves
Turkey banned UK-given warships to Ukraine from entering Black Sea
NEWS VIDEOS
SOUTH AFRICA
My country has a role to play towards a multipolar world, and has kept itself on the international stage with its genocide complaint against Israel to the International Court of Justice, and with its attempt to mediate peace between Ukraine and Russia.
It’s not an exaggeration to expect that this year’s national election, likely the most important since Mandela became President, may cause a ripple in the world. Killings are inevitable but every decent South African hopes that there won’t be major riots.
When I heard the following excellent discussion, I knew it could provide my local and overseas readers an intelligent backdrop. Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh (DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford) chats to Dr Ongama Mtimka (political analyst) on the “2024 Election, Jacob Zuma, cadre deployment, Ramaphosa, and opposition politics.”
From an opposing angle, liberal media interviews the DA, the ‘liberal’ party, about alleged shenanigans involving Russia and the ANC.