Russia/Ukraine Update: 8 Dec 2023
Russia/Ukraine Update: 8 Dec 2023
Everything has gone wrong for Ukraine. 2023's counteroffensive gains are almost lost, and Russia is advancing in Avdeevka, Bakhmut, Marinka and Lyman.
This is a mammoth and interesting edition that you’ll want to spend the whole weekend absorbing. How did I know that’s all you wanted to do this Friday, Saturday and Sunday - hey, I just knew :)
The Arctic is the future economic battleground. Global warming would also open up immense opportunities for wealth extraction from Siberia. These are major reasons why the USA and UK have tried to weaken Russia through Ukraine (whose rich farming soil and gas fields are only a bonus in comparison).
Thus, uncharacteristically, I begin with the above documentary, ‘Conquest of the Arctic’. It’s informative and entertaining, and more valuable than the occasional NATO propaganda therein. I may be disappointed with Germany’s foreign policy but Deutsche Welle, their Public broadcaster, often makes interesting documentaries.
A U.S. “XMAS GIFT” TO PUTIN
Tuesday’s press conference with John Kirby, the USA’s National Security Council’s Coordinator for Strategic Communications, may have aimed at Gaza but kept returning to Russia, with many reporters indirectly questioning if Ukraine was heading for failure. These are extracts from Kirby’s responses:
“What I can tell you is that if we don’t get relief, if Congress doesn’t act on the supplemental request that the President submitted, and we don’t get additional funds appropriated to support Ukraine, by the end of this year – which means by the end of this month – we won’t have the resources to continue to help Ukraine, at least not from the United States…
If we just pull the plug, the effect that that might have on other countries and their ability to support Ukraine could be well nigh disastrous.
And it’s a gift to Vladimir Putin. It’s a big old Christmas gift to him because he’ll get exactly what he wants…
If the U.S. alone pulls the plug, it’s going to have a significant negative impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight this war. I’d point you back again to what one of Zelenskyy’s top advisors said just yesterday, which is that without U.S. support, it’s possible they could lose this war. I don’t know how more stark I can put it than he did himself.”
PEACE PLAN KILLED BY WEST
The same day Kirby was speaking, the UN Security Council held a meeting at which it seemed to have biased agenda in that it allowed many delegations to speak repetitively against Russia.
Dmitry Polanskiy responded on behalf of Russia, and was summarised as follows:
Polanskiy underscored his country’s fundamental disagreement with the excessive number of delegations at the Security Council meeting. Just two speeches by the European Union and Ukraine would be enough, he said, as was wisely done by the Chinese presidency in November.
He said this meeting, called by Western countries, is cynical because these very countries are stubbornly not seeing the unfolding real humanitarian disaster caused by Israel in the Gaza Strip.
He also said that, in April 2022, then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of American Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, managed to dissuade the head of the Kyiv regime to sign an already initialled draft peace agreement with the Russian Federation.
“As recognized by the former German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the former French President [François] Hollande, they armed Ukraine and prepared it for war with Russia under the cover of the Minsk agreements for seven years.”
Continuing, he cited Ukrainian media reports about a group of 17-year-olds from an orphanage, who were trained, supposedly, to be used exclusively in rear areas, but one of them died at the frontline.
“In a word, Zelenskyy and his lapdogs are developing a kind of “Hitler Youth,” just like the head of the Third Reich did before his inevitable ghastly end in May 1945,” he said.
“It is curious as to when Western colleagues will recognize this; they are still continuing to pump taxpayers’ money into a terribly corrupt criminal Kyiv regime,” he noted.
If Ukrainians really are in such a ghastly situation, as our Western countries are saying, then Kyiv would not be able to export grain to countries in such enormous quantities, he concluded.
RUSSIA ADVANCING
I cannot imagine myself fighting on ice but the Slavs are hardier people than me. But a fighting spirit needs equipment, from warm jackets to mine-clearance vehicles. Instead, the Ukrainians are at a disadvantage, their Western allies distracted by election politics and pro-Zionist evangelists whilst Russian war manufacturing runs warmly.
The USA has stopped singing ‘All I Want for Christmas is You’ whilst some have begun ‘Last Xmas’ in rooms without reporters. The Ukrainian army choir may be left with ‘Baby, It's Cold Outside’ (which, suspiciously, YouTube hasn’t banned yet).
Although mainstream media has acknowledged that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, it seems to deliberately avoid the consequences. Russia has been advancing, and will seek to improve its position whilst the U.S. Congress and propaganda mill goes on holiday.
AVDEEVKA
The battle for Avdeevka, one of Ukraine’s most fortified cities, rivals that for Bakhmut and Mariupol, and may prove more important. Both sides have major losses.
As in Bakhmut, Russia has been creating a cauldron, capturing villages north-east and north-west of the city in order to disrupt supply lines. Those battles remain intense but the action has moved into the industrial zone.
Victory for the Russians could mean a significant collapse of the Ukrainian frontline and full control of the Donetsk province which declared independence from Ukraine.
It’s already a partial win as Ukraine’s bombing of the 2 million citizens in nearby Donetsk metro, 20km away, has greatly lessened. Control of Avdeevka would also mean that Russia could move its command centre into a city offering better infrastructure.
MARINKA
Marinka, which is directly west of Donetsk city, was destroyed long ago. It hasn’t had residents since November 2022. It’s a hellish fight between the ruins for better strategic position in the greater territory.
It definitely hasn’t received the attention it deserves, not even Wikipedia battle updates, so the world doesn’t know that the Russians have occupied most of the city, and are fighting pockets of Ukrainians on the western edge towards the village of Heorhiivka.
Progressing to that village would be extremely difficult owing to open fields that have been mined. The Russians may build fortifications, and help secure Donetsk from attack.
BAKHMUT
Bakhmut inspired me to write my most emotional article about the war, when the Russians won there 7 months ago. I began with:
“Bloodbath Bakhmut is falling. Soon, scared, maimed and dying Ukrainian soldiers won’t have to scream in the ‘Meat Grinder’. Maybe Ukraine is falling. Russia stands on the dead, proud captor of buildings like holes and earth like charcoal.“
But ended with what has become truth:
“I said that Ukrainians wouldn't scream in Bakhmut anymore, but they likely will, and so will the Russians.”
Russia is likely experiencing heavy casualties but this time its regular troops and not prisoners fighting for Wagner. Undoubtedly, that means Ukraine is suffering too. The difference is that Russia has something to show for it, capturing several positions during a surprise attack on December 6.
Fighting continues west, north-west and south-west of Bakhmut. It’s a major battle.
VUHLEDAR
South is a rare source of Ukraine’s military pride. Some of Russia’s greatest failures have happened in Vuhledar where tank battles dominated.
The Ukrainians are well positioned on a hill with firepower advantage over the highway and countryside. That doesn’t mean that its been comfortable as the Russians have rained hell on them since the beginning of the war.
Vuhledar is another ruin. Russia creeps in fractions from the south and east. But Ukraine holds.
BRADLEY SQUARE
150km further down the line from Volhedar, on the way to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the great Dnieper River, is Robotyne, the epicentre of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive.
In a pan handle that’s been nicknamed Bradley Square, after all the destroyed American Bradley Fighting Vehicles, the Ukrainians hold but have been stalled for weeks. It’s unlikely that they can sustain their position through Winter with the Russians on three sides.
If Russia retakes this area, then all Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains will have been nullified, and all territorial gains for 2023 will have been Russia’s. This would not only be a remarkable psychological victory but geopolitical leverage for Putin as the West would be even less inclined to send Ukraine weapons, and possibly start pushing for a peace plan.
KHERSON
The Ukrainian bridgehead on the Russian side of the Dniepner River was hailed as a positive whereas realists wondered if the Russians were allowing them to land so they could easily kill them.
Now the BBC, the pro-Ukrainian news outlet, has released an interview with a Ukrainian that confirms the slaughter. This is an extract from ‘Soldier tells BBC of front-line “hell”‘:
“The entire river crossing is under constant fire. I've seen boats with my comrades on board just disappear into the water after being hit, lost forever to the Dnipro river.
We must carry everything with us - generators, fuel and food. When you're setting up a bridgehead you need a lot of everything, but supplies weren't planned for this area.
We thought after we made it there the enemy would flee and then we could calmly transport everything we needed, but it didn't turn out that way.
When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."
THE WASHINGTON POST ANALYSIS OF WHY THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE FAILED
There’s a summary of The Washington Post’s major articles this week, explaining why Ukraine failed, and why the USA and Ukraine blame each other. I’m not going to summarise a summary, especially when it’s important for you to read. Please follow that link.
Update: Larry Johnson has published his response to the newsletter. He always has something interesting to say so visit ‘Dissecting the Washington Post’s “analysis” of Ukraine’s Failed Counter Offensive — Part 1’.
“The blame game about who lost Ukraine is starting. We know this thanks to the Washington Post, which managed to do some real reporting by publishing a two-part series on Ukraine’s failed counter offensive. Yep, kudos on that. The bad news? The analysis is shallow and repeats many of the false claims made by Ukrainians officials. That’s why I am here. To help you sort out the bullshit. Put on your hip waders. The bottomline is simple — the war is lost and the task of assigning blame is at hand.”
RUSSIAN DEFENCE REPORT
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces jointly with helicopters and artillery repelled five attacks of assault groups of the AFU 41st mechanised and 57th motorised infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and Lake Liman.
The enemy's losses amounted to up to 75 Ukrainian troops, two tanks, four armoured personnel carriers, two pickup trucks, one German-made Panzerhaubitze self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made M198 howitzer, and one D-30 gun.
In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces' units jointly with artillery repelled two attacks launched by the 24th Mechanised Brigade and 44th Separate Rifle Battalion of the AFU close to Dzerzhinsk and Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic). Up to 280 Ukrainian troops, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles were neutralised. Two U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery systems were hit during counter-battery warfare.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the 67th Mechanised Brigade (AFU) near Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 175 Ukrainian personnel, as well as three armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles during the day. In the course of counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, two Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one D-30 howitzer, and one U.S-made M119 gun were hit.
In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces supported by ground-attack aircraft, helicopters, and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 23rd mechanised, 58th motorised infantry, and 128th territorial defence brigades near Sladkoye, Nikolskoye, and Urozhaynoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 160 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, and one U.S.-made M777 artillery system.
In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery struck clusters of manpower of the AFU 33th Mechanised Brigade near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).
The enemy's losses amounted to 60 troops, two motor vehicles, as well as two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.
In Kherson direction, Russian troops, artillery fire, and air strikes defeated the enemy near Chervony Mayak (Kherson region). The enemy's losses in manpower amounted to up to 65 troops killed and wounded. In addition, two motor vehicles and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system were hit.
Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Groups of Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation hit command and observation posts of the AFU 67th mechanised, 100th territorial defence, and 12th special forces brigades near Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as ammunition and armament depots, manpower, and military hardware in 121 areas.
Air defence units shot down one Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft near Vesyolaya Gora (Donetsk People's Republic). Moreover, one HIMARS MLRS projectile and one HARM anti-radiation missile manufactured in the USA were intercepted.
In addition, 27 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were shot down close to Verkhnekamenka, Mankovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Gorlovka and Soledar (Donetsk People's Republic).
In total, 550 airplanes and 257 helicopters, 9,568 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 13,870 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,188 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,268 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 16,011 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
PUTIN WELCOMED IN MIDDLE EAST
NEWS LINKS
Ukrainian fingerprints on a shadowy assassination campaign on Russian soil
Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene become propaganda moment for Russian TV
Half a dozen EU members want new sanctions on Russia watered down
MILITARY ANALYSIS
DOCUMENTARY
I 100% believe that the USA has Ukrainian and Russian blood on its hands but that doesn’t make me oblivious to the daily struggles of your average Russian who faces conscription and oligarchs, or activists hit with legal sledgehammers etc.
It’s natural human madness to choose a side and then scream for it from convenient oblivion. There’s a lot of that happening on Substack, especially from those with fake profiles.
But I’m a truthseeker. I expect uncomfortable truths in places I admire. My own beloved country of South Africa is more devil than saint, so I cannot, from afar, expect purity in others.
Consequently, it’s important to watch videos shown from different viewpoints. The more I learn, the better I get at mining facts in between the propaganda. And propaganda is delivered by all sides, and always will be because most of us are uneducated or unwilling to be strong, and thus susceptible to manipulation.
“Now it is obvious that Ukraine will not win on the battlefield. Russia will not lose.” - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaking in Zurich at the jubilee event of the Swiss Magazine Die Weltwoche
Credit to ISW for the battle lines that I screenshot. Explore their interactive maps here.
It’s going to take awhile to work through these vids. Nice compilation.
Very informative and truthful. I like the reference to the YouTube clip at the end of the article (Daily Life in Putin's Russia) which is, well, mostly propaganda. Sorry ARTE.tv. Agree with "...propaganda is delivered by all sides, and always will be because most of us are uneducated or unwilling to be strong, and thus susceptible to manipulation." As my favorite anarchist Emma Goldman (1869-1940) once said: The most violent element in society is ignorance.