Russia/Ukraine Update - 1 Dec 2023

Putin and Kissinger romance, Lancet drones, significant Russian advance...

I'm back. The world suffered but never ended. I'm hoping you're well. I know Henry Kissinger isn't.

Putin sent condolences to Kissinger’s wife:

“An outstanding diplomat, a wise and far-sighted statesman who enjoyed well-deserved respect around the world for decades, has passed away. Henry Kissinger's name is inextricably linked with America's pragmatic foreign policy, which played a pivotal role in defusing international tensions at the time and achieving crucial Soviet-American agreements that contributed to strengthening global security."

I express my condolences too - HOORAY, HENRY’S DEAD.

Twitter’s @giltcomplex expressed something similar that went viral until I found it in the Mail & Guardian (of all places):

DRONES DECIDE UKRAINE’S FUTURE

Russia is making up to 300,000 First Person View (FPV) drones monthly, giving them a significant 6-1 advantage over Ukraine. These figures are disputed, but a similar campaign told us that Russians were going to run out of missiles a year ago.

What we know for certain is the consequence of drones. Winter is going to be cruel again.

This week, Ukraine suffered from its biggest drone attack since the war began. Considering cheaper drones were used, it may have been a precursor to real attack, an attempt to exhaust Kyiv’s air defence.

Ukraine responded with its own attack, mostly towards Moscow. Russia claimed to have shot 24 down. One hit a residential building.

A lot of successful strikes, especially on the Western side of the Dnieper River near Kherson, used the Lancet drone. I posted their advertorial video at the top of this page. I don’t support weapon manufacturers but that’s one of the most unique videos I’ve seen. I’m sure you’ll found it informative and strangely/pleasantly comedic too. I watched it months ago and still remember its proudly potato smell (if you watched, you know what I mean).

RUSSIAN DEFENCE REPORT

In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled two attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 14th and 30th mechanised brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov region). The enemy lost up to 45 Ukrainian troops and two motor vehicles.

In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by helicopters repelled one attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 60th Mechanised Brigade near Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The AFU losses amounted to up to 250 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles.

In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled two attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 79th Assault Brigade near Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic). In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware clusters of the AFU 93rd Mechanised Brigade near Andreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy lost up to 270 Ukrainian troops, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three pickup trucks.

One U.S.-made AN/TPQ-37 counterbattery radar station was destroyed near Zhelannoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery inflicted losses on manpower of the AFU 72nd Mechanised Brigade, 79th Airborne Brigade, and 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade near Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka, and Novoukrainka (Donetsk People's Republic). Up to 100 Ukrainian troops, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles were neutralised.

In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled three attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 82nd Airborne Brigade and 71st Jaeger Brigade close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region). In addition, strikes were delivered at manpower of the AFU 118th Mechanised Brigade, 46th Air Mobile Brigade, and 15th National Guard Brigade near Rabotino and north of Novopokrovka (Zaporozhye region). The AFU losses amounted to up to 30 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded and three motor vehicles.

In Kherson direction, as a result of actions of the Russian Group of Forces supported by artillery and aviation, the AFU lost up to 55 Ukrainian troops and two motor vehicles.

Operational-tactical and Army Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation wiped out a rear command post of the AFU 53rd Mechanised Brigade, an artillery battalion command and observation post of the AFU 31st Mechanised Brigade near Krasnoarmeysk and Novogrodovka (Donetsk People's Republic), two CT-68UM and P-18 radar stations for detecting and tracking air targets, as well as manpower and military hardware in 118 areas.

Air defence units intercepted nine Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Tokarevka (Kharkov region), Lipovoye and Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic), Pshenichnoye (Zaporozhye region), and Chaplinka (Kherson region).

In total, 544 airplanes and 255 helicopters, 9,310 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 13,712 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,187 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,205 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 15,781 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

UKRAINIAN REFUGEES

It’s hard to understand the exact situation regarding Ukrainian refugees. The UN records 27.2-million border crossings, lists 6.3-million as refugees, and states that 2.9-million have applied for asylum. 90% are women and children.

But the UN’s figure includes only 65,400 refugees in Russia when Statista has it at 1.3-million, a more believable figure considering the many reports I’ve read.

Poland used to have the most refugees but several hundred thousand returned to Ukraine or moved on to other countries. Russia now hosts the most.

The long-term question is how many will return once the war ends? Those with the most talent have started new professional lives in countries where the standard of living and safety is far better than it was in Ukraine before the war. Importantly, many husbands who were forced to remain are now dead. Mothers will likely make a decision based on where they can get the most support for their children.

PRIORITY NEWS

• Freedom of Information request reveals Bellingcat collusion with Western intelligence 

• Court ruling may free jailed Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky

• Top Ukrainian politician David Arakhamia gives seventh confirmation of Russia-Ukraine peace deal agreed in March 2022

NEWS LINKS

• Joe Biden’s secret Ukraine weapon: Liz Truss

• Ukraine behind rail explosion in Russian, 6000km east of Kyiv

• Why are Ukrainian special forces fighting Russia's Wagner mercenaries in Sudan?

• Economic losses pile up in Ukraine as Polish truckers protest

• Hungary against starting EU membership talks with Ukraine

• Top Russian court bans LGBT movement as 'extremist'

• Putin: "I have a SberDream"

• Powerful storm hits war-torn Ukraine, Russia

• Ukraine to reform conscription through commercial recruitment

• Ukraine aid’s best-kept secret: Most of the money stays in the U.S.A.

• Will the Ukraine war end in a peace treaty?

• Black Mountain Analysis’ geopolitical update

• A Skeptic war news aggregator

ON THE BORDERS

• Madness in Moldova

• President Aliyev scolds Blinken over U.S. backing for Armenia

• Russians support Uzbekistan’s bid for technology development

• Kremlin warns of tensions if Poland sends troops to Finnish-Russian border

• Finland to close border with Russia for two weeks

NEWS VIDEOS

WAR ANALYSIS

OFF TOPIC

Considering that I only summarise world news on Wednesday, here's the statement by the UN on the situation in Gaza.

"Yesterday, UN agencies delivered lifesaving medicines and surgical supplies to two hospitals in Gaza city — Al Ahli and Al Sahaba — which are estimated to be sufficient to meet the urgent health needs of 100 patients at each facility. The two hospitals also received a total 10,500 litres of fuel, enough to operate generators for about seven days. Despite the pause, there has been almost no improvement in the access of residents in the north to water, as most of the main water production facilities remain shut down, due to the lack of fuel and some also due to damages... Yesterday, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr. Tedros [Adhanom Ghebreyesus], reiterated his concern about the high risk of infectious diseases in the shelters that are hosting the internally displaced people, attributing this to severe overcrowding and disruption of health, water, and sanitation systems. He noted that more than 111,000 cases of acute respiratory infection, 36,000 cases of diarrhea in children under five, and 24,000 cases of skin rash had been recorded since the start of the crisis."