Twisters in the Fog of War

What's happening with Ukraine's invasion of Russia, and does it matter?

The invasion of Russia by Ukraine is made enigma by contrasting propaganda, and the inability to gain sufficient facts in between. Nevertheless, I’m tired of holding back things I want to say.

It's no more a "terrorism attack" than the war is a "special military operation". In war, there's to-and-fro, and unexpected moments. Alone, they don't decide an outcome.

If it was a long-planned operation, it was a big failure by Russia. If it was hastily put together, the "Ukrainian Hail Mary" that's been referred to, then it's still a useful lesson to Russia on how to better protect its border if, for example, there were a broader war with NATO. I’m betting it was well-planned by a few, with the soldiers and logistics hastily gathered for the sake of secrecy (an accomplishment itself).

Was it Zelensky's idea, or did the USA or UK play a role again? That cannot be determined but, politically, the division between Western allies gains an extra inch - the USA and UK are relishing the marketing whilst there's EU concern that Zelensky isn't obeying his leash.

Russian public reaction is divided. At the extremes, military commentators are outraged at fallibility, but, for most Russians, border villages are probably so far away as to easily fall into "that war in Ukraine" they keep at the edge of their mind. Of course, the Russians troops killed, especially national servicemen, will have an affect on family and friends, but the attack would need to reach a city to be an effective dampener on the belief in the righteousness of Mother Russia.

Since Ukraine is being defeated everywhere else, it's unlikely that it has the manpower (and womanpower) to capitalise on its gains. It would be foolish to strike the Kursk nuclear power plant because that would be taboo for its backers, and thus weaken their role in peace negoti-

"As a result of an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a cooling tower at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant was seriously damaged... The risk of the cooling tower's structural collapse will be assessed by specialists when the situation permits." - DD Geopolitics

The best Ukraine can do is to dig into a section, and use it as a chip when the bargaining for peace begins. That will require an extreme tolerance for suffering - it has already lost many experienced lives, and will continue that path with untrained conscripts rightfully frightened of Russia’s long-distance flamethrowers.

"Fire damage was inflicted on the AFU manpower and hardware near Nikolayevo-Daryino, Gusevo, Lyubimovka, Zeleniy Shliyakh, and Sverdlikovo." - Russian Defence Ministry Report

Russian media lie that the situation is under control. It isn't, and Ukraine will probably fake attacks in other areas, or even open a new front in order to give the other time to prepare defences and get supply lines running.

But Russia will get control.

As obvious as it has been that Russia has been holding back in this war, settling for warrior attrition instead of citizen decimation, it will retaliate for the invasion. Ukraine will pain as a country. Western Media's claimed moral boost will become a curse.

Conversely, how quickly the Ukrainians can be repelled will be the final determination of where Russian public opinion falls. Until then, victories in Ukraine will become deafening in local media.

More relevant is that every Ukrainian troop sent to die in Russia results in the stretched Eastern front snapping. The Russians are advancing in the direction of Kupyansk, and in many places in the Donbas. Zelensky will prepare for his loss with more desperation.

In context, Ukraine's incursion is being made into something bigger than it is. Eventually, there'll be new houses for villagers in the Kursk oblast, celebrated during another damn military parade. And Ukraine will have lost NATO's war.

War, simply, is terrible.

QUICK NEWS

• "The United States has for a decade allowed athletes in international competitions, including the Olympics, to use prohibited drugs such as steroids, recruiting them as informants to spy on others. This is according to the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), the global authority on the use of banned substances in sports." - Geopolitical Economy

• 'The [USA's] National Endowment for Democracy: What It Is and What It Does' - China Ministry Foreign Affairs

• "The Kremlin-controlled technology company VK is developing a new application to potentially replace WhatsApp ahead of a potential block of the American messenger." - BNE IntelliNews [VK is already on its way to replacing YouTube. Expect Alphabet and Meta to control less of the world.]

AFTERTHOUGHT

Some of you know that I'm in love with foreign movies, and a handful aware that I ridiculously make lists. Lists need categories, and my dream list of Russian movies to watch has always been a sub-category under "Europe" - Russia feels closer to France than Bulgaria is to Sweden, or Turkey to NATO. But, more and more, I'm faced with the reality that Russia is only RUSSIA.