#4 Ukraine Has Lost the War
Are you witnessing a victor in the rubble?
The next episodes in this series were meant to be about neo-Nazism but I was trapped by the horrifying present, unwilling to share Ukrainian history. I overcame my operational pause by explaining Ukraine’s worsening situation and my position on war. Then I sat on it. But eventually I moved my spineless arse.
Ukraine has lost. More people need to say that so that peace is pursued. That’s not about choosing a side but pragmatism towards saving lives, homes and what’s left of their economy. Russia’s situation is less certain, but I’ll address theirs and the USA’s future in the final episodes of this series.
Are you shocked or disgusted at me daring to say that Ukraine is the loser? Look at your TV screens. Are heroes better dead? Are you witnessing a victor in the rubble? No outcome will change the current damage. This war may be the biggest waste in my lifetime. I’m pained by their pain.
Either I’m wrong or a new propaganda campaign is underway because the latest headlines are similar in their intent:
Daily Beasts’ ‘We’re Losing’ but Moscow Will Never Admit It, Russian Soldier Says’
Express’ ‘Putin humiliated at loss of 50,000 troops leaves him relying on army of grandads’
and The Bulwark’s ‘Ukraine Is Winning’ which outrageously claims that “everything is in [Zelensky’s] favor.”
Everything is not in Ukraine’s favour.
Damage estimates now reach $1.1-trillion. Ukraine was already the poorest in Europe. It cannot invent dollars the way USA does each time its stock market returns are more important than their citizens and the world.
Ukraine’s GDP is expected to drop to 45% this year, requiring assistance of $5-billion per month. It’s already a heavily indebted and corrupt country. It’s unlikely that grants and low interest loans would make up the shortfall. Post-war, it could fall into the pocket of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which Russia was uncomfortably familiar with.
In June, the strategy website, 19FortyFive, featured the article, ‘There Is No Military Path for Ukraine To Defeat Russia’. Daniel Davis, formerly a lieutenant-colonel, stated that:
“Ukrainian units are outgunned 20-1 in artillery and an eye-popping 40-1 in artillery rounds. Combined with the fact Russia continues to have significant advantages in man power and air power (up to 300 air sorties per day compared with three to five for Ukraine), it is not surprising Ukraine is losing its grip on the Donbas.” In his most recent article, Davis says “If the two sides do not end the war through negotiations in the coming months, it is likely – not just possible – that Ukraine will lose the war.” His position is complemented by Frank Ledwidge, an expert on military strategy who is associated with the Ukrainian think tank, the Transatlantic Dialogue Center. Ledwidge relates a conversation wherein a Government official told him: “We are losing this war.”
Poorly trained and untrained civilians are replacing fatigued and dead troops. On June 16, a month before more heavy fighting, Davyd Arakhamia, the Parliamentary leader of Zelensky's party, stated that Ukraine was suffering up to 1,000 dead and wounded on a daily basis in Donbas. This is not the Marines against cave-dwelling, never-give-in Taliban. Plumbers, accountants, administrators and Minecraft players are among the dead - common people like us are dying. The sheer horror of this war is not being reported honestly by mainstream news. Of the many articles I’ve read, Canadian Dimension’s ‘When You’re in a Hole, Stop Digging’, summed it up best. Of course, the Russians are taking losses but that doesn’t mean Ukrainian victory.
Efforts that could force peace negotiations are being hindered. Political parties, including the main opposition, have been banned as if they’re Russian agents – some probably are but some aren’t. Even Russian authors and musicians are being barred. I fear that these moves will benefit Ukraine’s ultra-nationalist movement which, in turn, is anti-peace.
Whilst rich countries shudder at higher gas and petrol prices, the local calamity is ironically being ignored. Ukrainian winters are notorious, getting as cold as -30°. Even with millions having escaped the war, they only have half the gas they need for the cold season. Instead, all we hear on the news is that Germany will have less. The EU doesn’t really care about Ukraine. Either way, the desire for gas may help end the war.
On July 7, Putin indirectly shared his determination:
“We have heard many times that the West wants to fight us to the last Ukrainian. This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but it seems that everything is heading towards this.”
I’M ANTI-WAR
In our insanely, short-sighted, selfishly ideological, emotional world, I feel like I must clarify my position so that potentially biased readers get to the facts I’m trying to give them.
I agree with the War Resisters’ League which states:
“…[We] affirm that all war is a crime against humanity. We are determined not to support any kind of war, international or civil, and to strive non-violently for the removal of all causes of war, including racism, sexism and all forms of exploitation.”
I’m anti-war and anti-economic imperialism.
I'm anti-propaganda because there’s deadly consequence to dumbly supporting what we're told. Consequently, I’m pro-truth-seeking.
There was no excuse for Russia's invasion of Ukraine nor is there for the war-mongering U.S.A prolonging it. But Russia, more than anyone else, can justify its actions. I can list those facts without being a Putin supporter.
My heart is with the victims, but my brain seeks to clear the fog of war. The suffering, which includes Ukrainian citizens and soldiers, and Russian soldiers, doesn't have that luxury. They must survive whilst we must seek the truth that they'll eventually need to build their future. That doesn't mean that the Ukrainians will choose it. History shows that the majority rush towards populism, from convenient emotion to convenient lie, that the aftermath of war is exploited by the selfish and the sociopath. But that doesn't mean that I’m without hope. A new economic/geopolitical world is upon us. Amidst shifting powers, good can happen amongst the bad. The odds are against… but it can.
The war should be at crossroads because Ukraine is a ruin equalling loss, thus closer to the peace talks which should have happened before the war began. Emphasis on “should”.
Bodies pile quicker and higher whilst international compassion is fatigued. Even the Media has slowed its lies. Heroes are opportune until they’re not. It wouldn’t be surprising if the US one day misdirected its share of the blame at Zelensky. Ukraine’s far right will blame everyone.
The politicians may not say it, but the blame game is inevitable. Only the assassination of Putin could prevent that. But Putin is feared and loved. His generals may share my sentiment that the war has passed a milestone, that a longer, different war is ahead, and that the safety of their positions and riches are in relationships to the East and South.
UNCERTAINTY
In war, there are always uncertainties:
Who will finally control the city of Kherson? Russia is currently in control and intends to annex it. It’s a strategic river port enabling Ukrainian access to the Black Sea. To avoid becoming economically landlocked, Ukraine has to retake it. Also important is its smaller neighbour, Kakhovka, with its water reservoir and hydroelectric power station serving the south (which means Russian-occupied territory).
Will Ukraine lose its already slipping morale before Russian mothers’ protest at their children dying?
Who will run out of weapons, machinery and manpower first? I believe that it’ll be Ukraine.
Belarus is a wildcard. The Belarus–Russia security relationship is complicated. It has no will for war, but escalation could take it where it doesn’t want to go. But it would be prudent for Putin to borrow its weapons and cross its territory rather than cause a conflict between its government and people will protest each other.
Will Sweden and Finland applying to NATO cause a broader war, or will it apply pressure when peace talks eventually happen?
If Sweden and Finland eventually join NATO, will that mean more missiles pointed at Russia? Will Russia add its own to Kalingrad, it’s exclave in the middle of Europe? Or are they already there, as would be expected from Putin the planner. At what point would Putin consider using a nuke on Ukraine in order to send a message to NATO?
Will Turkey block the NATO process because Swedish courts refuse to hand over innocent civilians that President Erdogan labels as terrorists? Were his demands masquerade for negotiation for weapons from the U.S. so that he can bomb the Kurds, the U.S.’s previous ally against I.S.I.S.? Whatever the motive, Erdogan is playing his own game (just as India has been).
Would India create a ripple effect by becoming more multipolar? India doesn’t want to be told what to do but could strengthen its position if it settled its border disputes with China. That type of peace would scare America.
Will Russia, Iran, Turkey and India work together as a new Euro/Asian economic alliance, bolstering Russia’s political position and offering Iran indirect defence against the U.S.? Could Saudi Arabia fit into that mess?
Will Germany, France and Italy defy the U.S. and force peace negotiations to protect their economies and independence? Has Russia’s semi-allies, Brazil and Serbia, already submitted options to Europe on behalf of Russia?
Will stagflation or recession demand American comforts before Ukrainian lives? The House and Senate elections are coming - the traditional election promises of “Americans first” will be trumpeted. The earlier elections of the UK’s and Italy’s new leaders may grease that pole.
Will Zelensky be assassinated or Biden’s health decline him from office?
THERE’S A BIGGER PICTURE
The list continues because Ukraine is but one in hundreds of countries. The Media has blown the situation into more than it is. They have prolonged the war because selling belief in the negative creates negativity. We are, sometimes, unfortunate creatures of our imagination. Politicians know that well. And some journalists use their keyboards as machine guns. They’re both guilty of killing and keeping peace out of reach. The West has turned war into entertainment no matter the cost.
No photo of a dead child in a humanity-forsaken country is more important than the health of everyone. It hurts me to say that, nevertheless it’s always been the savage truth. Ukrainian lives are not more important than Burmese, Kurdish, Syrian, Libyan, Palestinian, Nigerian, Argentinian, Zimbabwean and South African lives, but as important.
Non-related global events, especially involving China’s economy, could shape the war as it would our world.
Ukraine’s importance is in being the unwitting tool for the rearrangement of our global order. Opposingly, there’s the attempted pro-longing of the petrodollar, the U.S.A. forcing Europe into subservience, and seeking a dangerously amplified Cold War which would divide our planet.
The insanely rich and their politicians will never realise that, at heart, they’re toddlers wanting too many cookies. Ukraine will be valuable if we can use it, the situation not the people, to make them understand that we’re the good parent denying our bullies our sugar. But maybe I’m being too hopeful now.
A hollowed-out USA is refusing to integrate and instead doubling-down on its self-perceived mastery of the world. Russia is intent on holding itself together.
Empires act like empires until they’re not. Mega corporations are going to take as much as they can whilst they can.
I don’t see a better time before I die. I’m gloomy about that, but it’s better than being a soldier in this Russian/Ukrainian war. We don’t have to forget their suffering whilst we pragmatically look at the bigger picture. We must end the war.
Considering the weight of what I’ve said, it feels like I'm stepping backwards with the next episode in this series. But I'd feel guilty if I never tackled the difficult topic of Putin's claim of Ukrainian Nazification. It may become an issue if negotiations begin.
Negotiations are an infinitely better option than a North and South Korea like scenario. But the situation may be more far-gone now.
Ukraine has been lied to by the West, led down the garden path into a thorny patch. Putin’s patience has died. He’s no longer going to be satisfied with his original terms (which wouldn’t have cost Ukraine anything they hadn’t lost before the war and made both sides safer). I expect territory to be annexed. How much no one can say but Putin has a plan. He’s not the cartoon madman our media made him out to be. He’s methodical and he adapts. Underestimating one’s enemy is surely the first failure in war. The hubris of the U.S.A. is not a good tactic.
WHAT ABOUT THOSE MISSILE PRESENTS AND THE MILLION UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS?
NATO missiles are never enough for Ukraine. In the long-term, there are better options than killing for peace. Immediately, they don’t know how to use them properly, and Russia has more.
On July 11, Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, claimed:
“We have approximately 700,000 in the armed forces and when you add the national guard, police, border guard, we are around a million-strong.”
That was said in conjunction with Ukraine’s intention to retake Kherson. Ukraine has to attack the south to avoid becoming a landlocked. But that first part about a million soldiers being massed is as laughable as pain. If Ukraine was capable of that, they’d have done it long ago. They don’t have the logistical capability for what they have left, let alone more. Where would the weapons, bullets, armour, food, supply lines and salaries come from?
Despite Zelensky denying men the human right to flee a war zone, many left anyway. Whilst some became volunteers, more stayed quiet in their homes in Western Ukraine where they were safe. One tweet stated that, “Animals have more rights in Ukraine than men.”
If Ukraine possessed a million soldiers, then they wouldn’t be dragging men off the streets and into the fight, forcing others to hide in their homes in the hope that they don’t have to. If they had a million soldiers, they would have to train them which is impossible as that much activity would attract missile attacks.
Not fighting doesn’t necessarily mean cowardice. They’re hearing grapevine truth, that their friends and family are being killed in massive numbers, losing limbs and becoming shell-shocked - that it has become a futile war. Avoiding futility is logical. A man deciding that his family will be stronger with him alive is understandable. A boy or girl wanting to grow into an adult is too.
Critics of Putin’s “special operation” have forgotten nuance. If Putin declared this a “war”, that would vastly increase his troop size.
Unless NATO openly steps in, Ukraine has lost the war. It needs to think about its future. And the U.S. and the E.U. need to allow it to.
This is the end of essay #4. Essays #5 and #6 present the history of Nazism in Ukraine and describe its effect on modern Ukraine and the war with Russia.