Ukraine needs $150bn annually!

And another $1tn to cover damages. Maybe Canada can help?

Mariupol after Russian capture

My readers know I want peace negotiation, and not more foreign funding that ensures more Ukrainians and Russians die for corporate profiteering and hollow ‘for democracy’ politics.

However, these figures from Tim Ash, a war supporter, are worth your time. He’s an economist at BlueBay Asset Management which is owned by the Royal Bank of Canada. Unsurprisingly, he’s also an Associate Fellow at the Chatham House ‘think tank’ for their Russia and Eurasia program.

Ukraine has received $199bn (and $10bn external debt service relief) the past 25 months i.e. $209bn.

It needs $100bn annually to stay at war, but more than that to improve its position. Ash’s suggestion is $150bn.

I doubt that donation to BlueBay Asset Management’s investors Ukraine is attainable.

• U.S. politics will stay insane, and become crazier with the November election. If Trump survives the court cases, he will make the EU accept greater responsibility for the war so that he can build a bigger border wall back home.

• June hosts the EU election. The liberals will keep control, but the conservative block will be larger and thus less of a walkover regarding the prioritisation of domestic inequality.

• The Fed will have its hands fill trying to stop a global recession. Even without, we haven’t recovered from the 2008 crash nor covid lockdown. By “we” I mean normal people and not corporate share prices. Life’s getting harder, so there’ll be less enthusiasm from the European Public to keep financing war and overpriced American gas.

• After a year of allowing Zelensky to tragically send Ukrainians to walk on landmines, Russia is successfully attacking. It claimed over 3,000 Ukrainian casualties the past 2 days. Three small cities will probably fall within one month - Krasnohorivka, Chasiv Yar, and Vovchansk. Many villages already have. As much as the goal of a buffer zone between Belgorod (Russia) and Kharkhiv (Ukraine) is real, it may double as a distraction for a major offensive from the east (just my theory). The Russian army is 15% bigger than before the war started, and they want the war to end. Simply, investors don’t like losers, and Ukraine needs a lot of dollars and euros to survive another Winter.

Another article at BNE IntelliNews should be considered a companion to Ash’s war costing. ‘The Mountain to Climb’:

“…estimates the total damages from the Ukraine war at between $485bn and $1 trillion, and notes that Western aid delivered thus far has been woefully inadequate for genuine reconstruction.”

I’m sure BlueBay Asset Management will ‘help’ reconstruction.

Russia is reconstructing Mariupol.