Avdeevka is falling quickly!
A divided Ukraine, a strategic city, and a pivotal moment in the war.
Avdeevka is this year’s Bakhmut, and Ukraine is losing. Frostbite, a reduced weapon supply, and a concentration of Russian forces ensure their failure.
Except for the industrial area in the north, the town is in a cauldron and operationally encircled i.e., the Russians have artillery control over the the top of the cauldron. It’s unlikely that Ukraine can withdraw all its troops before the cauldron becomes a box with Russian troops for its sides.
Russia offered them safety in return for mass surrender but was rejected. Consequently, many are dying as they battle to withdraw via muddy roads swallowing tyres. However, without their officers, it’s also assured that smaller groups will surrender.
Notably, the Third Assault Brigade is assisting the Ukrainian escape. They’re special forces made up of previous Azov units, more infamously known for their ne-Nazi leanings. If they become involved for the fight for the coke plant, it will invoke memories of their battle for Mariupol, their lost home base.
There is no credible source of casualties in the battle for Avdeevka but both sides have suffered, and likely lost tens of thousands. Defying the destruction are hundreds of civilians living in basements. Before the war, 87% of the population were Russian speakers.
The fall of Avdeevka will mean the end to targeted and indiscriminate shelling of Donetsk city approximately 20km to the south-west. Donetsk will used as a Russian operational hub, and, along with Chasiv Yar (if that’s captured west of Bakhmut), will become the summer gateway to the rest of the Donbas province.
Outweighing that may be Russia’s morale victory, or rather the dejection that Ukrainians will experience. Blame associates with horror, and that may be cast more at their own leaders than Putin. It will be educational to see how Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s new army chief, copes.
I feel so sorry for the Ukrainians, betrayed by their masters, who in turn have been betrayed by their masters and so it goes. The Ukrainians voted Zelensky in on his platform for peace and look what they got? I guess the fascist elements had him by the short and curlies very quickly. Perhaps we all have a destiny which will play out regardless.
No I understand the significance. It’s just that it seems like a lot of analysts are playing this like a video game. The difference being of course is the players don’t come back when the game is restarted. I know you’re not wired like that.