Blood, Bones and Bodybags
Blood, Bones and Bodybags
The mysterious case of the invisible Ukrainians and their quest to walk on minefields without TV coverage.
We, as a species, only care about a war if the propaganda machine points at it.
Sudan, Somalia, the Congo and the Sahel don’t matter, especially when white cameras can’t see black folk. You’re right, Haiti and Kenya have reached minor news status, but that’s because the USA is framing the situation before its next move against those never-free Caribbeans.
Brown people normally don’t matter which is why Myanmar can’t be found on a map. The Cartel War in Mexico has been normalised, as has the volatility between India and Pakistan. What about Afghanistan, Libya and Syria? No, I don’t think those countries exist. Hollywood needed villains so it invented them.
Yeah, yeah, some brown people matter... when they have something that can be stolen. But the Media speaks more about their ‘suburb’ of Gaza and not their country of Palestine (despite 143 countries recognising it). They’re primarily news not because they’re dying, but because they’re blocking Israel’s gas and real estate plans. Yes, there’s that religious thing (poor cow!), and weapon manufacturing profits to consider (‘cause it would be a shame if Americans making bombs became unemployed). Sanctions? There you go, fabricating another word when you should have done so 6 months ago (because repeated magic can become reality).
It’s a new world world that’s old. It’s as George Carlin said, a big fucking club, and we’re not in it. Neither are the Ukrainians, which is the painful point of my long-winded sarcasm.
Ukraine is facing its worst moment in the war yet Western Media isn’t providing context, thus making their death invisible.
Putin appears to have, in a neither confirm nor denial manner, inserted into the Media that he's willing to negotiate a ceasefire. That means stopping with territory held, and giving up on the dream of reuniting with Odessa, and the strategic necessity of connecting to Transnistria. This is congruent with what happened at a 2022 meeting in Turkey when Russia wanted the war to end as quickly as possible. However, it seems impossible because the USA, UK and Zelensky (whose term as President has expired) are committed to not talking, and killing Ukrainians instead.
A big escalation was the NATO attack on Russia's early warning radar systems, which includes nuclear strikes from Europe or the southern Black Sea where the war in the Ukraine isn't. It’s 100% proof that Russia is vulnerable.
Ukraine may have fired the weapons but they're American missiles aimed at targets relevant to America and not Ukraine. It's another escalation, another pushing the red line to goad Putin into responding bigger, so that he can be blamed, and arms manufacturers can make more money at the risk of a greater war.
Alternatively or simultaneously, they've estimated that Putin won't respond beyond firing another hundred missiles at Ukraine, and that they will have weakened Russia at no cost to the West.
The in between option is Russia declaring a no-fly zone for Western reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea. It's obvious that those and satellites are choosing what to fire at. That Putin has long failed to order them shot down is another reason for his naysayers to call him weak. He's never struck me as that, so I think its either testimony to his fear of, or fortitude against, escalation. But escalation may be unavoidable.
Russia did send a bunch of missiles at Ukraine but that's microcosm, and thus unlikely to be the end of it. The other path out of the mess is to create another meatgrinder, and shred Ukrainians into submission. It's possible that's what's happening on the northern border with Russia.
As I expressed last week, the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was unlikely the main objective. There's now a race between the Russians digging in, and the Ukrainians gathering a big enough force to counterattack around the towns of Volchansk and Lypsti.
If Russia blows up enough bridges, creates enough trenches and concrete obstructions, and is found to have mechanically thrown minefields for 5km south, then it could become another meatgrinder. Many Russians will die but, in a war of attrition, one side can lose a lot whilst the other side loses more than a lot. Russia’s 4.5-million artillery shell production this year will hurt. And that’s before we get to Russian jets with missiles that don’t care that Ukrainian stick figures outnumber Russian stick figures on the ground.
Zelensky is aware of the challenge. As Weeb Union pointed out, Zelensky said that Russia dropped 3,200 FAB bombs in May alone. Ukraine will suffer more casualties this month than the number of deaths it claims for the whole war. It’s like Gaza, but in 30 days.
Several of my other expectations/musings have been met…
Approximately 120km west of Lypsti, there's a new gathering of Russians. They will strike into the oblast (province) of Sumy, and seek to stretch towards the meatgrinder so that the new frontline becomes over 100km long. This will be challenging but will dilute the Ukrainian counterattack.
From Volchansk, the Russians open up the opportunity to start moving towards Kupyansk (and not Kharkiv). This ties in with me wondering if the Russian attack from the east of Kupyansk would be reinvigorated, and it has.
In fact, there's activity along most of the 1000km battle line. Russia is capturing village after village, or rather the rubble where those villages used to be. The latest were Netailove and Ivanivka. Another victory in the offing - Bilohorivka, a strategic position that has been fought for since the beginning of the war, is likely to fall this week.
I pondered if the battle north of Kharkiv was merely a step towards a major attack elsewhere, once Ukrainian troops had been redeployed. I don’t know if this is it, but it’s notable that Russia has activated in the south by Zaporizhia, near the Dnipro River.
WHAT NEXT?
I cannot see Ukraine holding on much longer, so what is more likely to happen? Peace negotiations, or is NATO going to get more directly involved before the US, UK and EU elections possibly result in deescalation. Will they force Russia to create a no-fly Black Sea zone or drop a nuke? Who will blink first?
Whatever happens, be sure that Russia will be cast as the Devil, and most of Ukraine’s dead will remain invisible because they’re less important than profit.
Maybe the best way out is for Zelensky’s troops to overthrow him, and to state to the world that they’re getting screwed by the West.
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NEWS LINKS
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PODCAST
Scott Horton - What It’s Like in Ukraine Right Now?
Public, Disobay the Politicians!!!!
Over here in the states I've yet to hear an outcry for Zelenskys' removal. It's All Biden's fault,or it's all the fault of the Peace lovers hindering the war effort.
Every one knows people that love Peace are dirty commies, so our Politicians don't listen to them.
Our side (hooray!) Is talking openly about tactical nukes, and only commies are opposed to the idea.
We live in a very cynical world where death has no meaning. As for Afghanistan, it was just there for a Rambo movie.
No more real than the jews living in the sewers of NYC with dirty mattresses.
Great work Mike.