The Impossible Battle

The Slavic tragedy in Ukraine's expedition to Russia.

"We are witnessing a significant ideological shift — the naive, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some partners, has crumbled apart these days." - Volodymyr Zelensky

On August 6, whilst its front line was decaying in the East, Ukraine attacked Russia in the North, from Sumy into Kursk Oblast (province/state).

Some call it an “invasion”, and the definition technically fits, but, in effect, I'm nearer to the Russians tagging it as the briefer “incursion”.

It's not strange if you expect desperation from the losing side, or if you believe the only way for the Zelensky’s regime to survive is to drag NATO into visibility in a broader war.

When your Donbas dam is bursting, you don't take your blue and yellow finger out of the hole and stick it in Putin's eye, thinking he’ll only look at Kursk. Besides, Putin's known to be two-eyed. Nevertheless, that's what Zelensky did, and thus more senselessness in this senseless war.

Criticism is all weather, but the fog of war limits honest commentating. Foremost is not knowing Ukraine's ultimate goal. I can say that they seek a bargaining chip for negotiations to end the war whilst simultaneously delaying peace, or that the AFU is locally driven by war profiteers and never-give-in-Nazis, or that the objective is to provoke an international incident, but that's only guessing.

We shouldn't give into propaganda from popular anonymous substackers who diminish Russian blood dripping on Russian soil. It's as easy to fall for Western propaganda that has entirely forgotten that this was a civil war, and that it's Eastern Ukrainians fighting for their independence from Western-backed human rights destroyers in Kiev.

I said "was a civil war" because, NATO threat aside, there's notable difference between Russia supporting an independence movement and being attacked itself. The awkward "special military operation" term is now more crippled because this is war, and half a million dead are cheering that it should be called that.

A rural area of giant Russia isn't going to shock all its citizens, but this is a wake-up call amplification of those occasional missiles landing in Belgorod, and thus the Kremlin will respond massively.

John Mearsheimer recently described the Kursk situation with a question. He reminded that it’s a war of attrition - Ukraine is outgunned, has less soldiers, and more casualties. The main question should be whether the expedition in Kursk improves that equation? It doesn't, which is why my fear is that a more inflammatory objective is afoot.

Putting alarmism aside to look at the short term, Ukraine is fighting and achieving. That's remarkable considering they have few places to hide, and are having to pulse new troops to cover those bleeding. They have successfully diverted Russian troops from the East, making that 800km line of contact softer.

In the medium term, Ukraine cannot continue. It has to withdraw, or dig in if they gain the Seim River [Сейм] as an extra barrier. Notably, Russia is past the surprise attack, and is compiling a new army to deal with the problem.

Despite the Eastern Front being quieter, it isn't quiet. Russia is simply more focused on extending its Avdeevka gains Westward. Niu York, Toretsk and Karlivka will fall, and the battle for the strategic points Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar will begin. The Ukrainians will have fewer bullets and human replacements to defend with. They will lose and the war will unwind.

The unknown factor is Zaporizhzhia in the South.

SPECIAL RECOMMENDATION

I often put news links from non-MSM media below my posts, and/or include battle analysis videos from smarter folk. This time, however, I want you to FOCUS ON ONE STORY. The excerpt will encourage you to follow the link below it, watch the video and read it all.

"A recent event - another twist in the case of the fitness trainer brutally beaten and forcibly mobilized in Odessa for criticizing soldiers. A couple days back, a video was published where he was tied to a tree, stating: "I am a faggot. I have just been fucked in the ass. I will serve the armed forces of Ukraine."

Ukrainian mainstream social media was divided - some praised it, some worried it wasn’t the best PR for the army. But the veracity wasn’t questioned.

The story of the fitness trainer makes me think of two things..."

Unknown victims and universal lessons

PERSONAL NOTE TO MY DEAR SUBSCRIBERS

I may have given you a lot of posts, but consider today my first step towards article writing again. I must overcome my despair, especially at my country, and return to a schedule next month. Better to do than dwell (because life is always absurd for the living).

Maybe a Same Shitty feature on Sundays, and something smaller on Thursdays (to make you cogitate). I’ll do more on Russia and Palestine, but we mustn’t forget almost everybody else. If you stop vegetating on the “these are the days of our lives” U.S. election soapie, and buy an umbrella, we can go to the Congo.

For those subscribed to Wicked Ghosts, I’ll use Tuesdays.

I want to bring the world closer, so maybe I’ll start a website for foreign movies and documentaries. Yeah, yeah, such niche, but I’ll love my 3 readers.

All future posts at South African Midday (which is Midnight in the important town of Fargo).

Thank you for sticking with me!