My FAKE South African ELECTION RESULTS 2024
I'm back from the future into 2024. I'm dressed in a suit I stole from a think tank pollster. Will you fill in your life's lottery ticket with the numbers I give you ?
On Sunday, at midday in the land of tik and tsotsis, I’ll post the feature article you requested. Let this be your drink at the restaurant bar before you’re given a seat at the table (where I’ll serve you a meal as meaty as a lion called Zuma).
HOT SOUTH AFRICAN KNIVES
The May 29 South African election approaches like an exciting horror movie (or overnight camping in the Cape Town township of Nyanga).
The impatient among you will find my hot-from-the-future election results highlighted near the bottom of the post, but I start by throwing these knives for my overseas readers who probably don't understand the fucked-up challenges we face:
60 million of us are called South African. 27,368 of us were murdered in 2023. That's more than were killed in the USA which has a population of 340 million (and more crime movies than that). Our homicide conviction rate of 6.8% is salt in eyes of crying families.
7.1 million South Africans pay personal tax (thanks, guys and girls) versus 28 million on welfare grants (may it keep you alive).
44.3% of young adults (up to age 34) are officially unemployed. That statistic is higher when including those who have given up looking for work, or are selling vegetables on a city pavement.
40% of South Africa’s kids drop out of school, and standards have dropped to allow the others through. Yet, this year, our proud Government proclaimed its greatest graduation statistics.
We’re angered, but not surprised, when 8 men are burnt alive, children are chopped into pieces for good luck charms, and babies are raped as a cure for AIDS.
We desperately need the police but we’re scared of them - a helluva catch-22.
WE’RE VICTIMS FOR POLITICS
Most political parties don’t exist. They’re only different marketing schemes for whoever controls them.
For example, no party can claim to be the enemy or competitor of the Democratic Alliance (DA) if they only talk about it. I’ve met many politicians, some of them bigwigs, but none will punish the corruption of the DA for an easy election boost let alone duty or morality. The ANC may as well join Helen Zille’s Moonshot Pact.
The DA’s friends are obviously more powerful than the 22% of the vote it got in the 2019 elections. Even if they meet my hope of their decline, they’ll still be as influential as a corrupt judge meeting an innocent man.
"White monopoly capital", "black economic empowerment", "liberalism", "communism" and, especially "democracy", are just slogans meant to make us lose our minds whilst the most relevant politicians hold out their begging bowels to billionaires and richer countries.
For a fancy salary and a trip overseas, they'll betray us whilst claiming to be our friend, and pointing at who we should hate (which is another fork-tongued politician pointing at us).
What we've got is a lot of disruption ‘cause people struggling in chaos are easier to manipulate. We fight ourselves instead of real problems.
But sometimes chaos escapes the hands of its controllers and damages exponentially. We have that fear in our bellies, like we did during the 2021 Unrest when 354 died and 1,500 shops got looted… yet we refuse to change.
In that South African spirit of bedlam, without the benefit of a poll or a 'poll', without the results of the Constitutional court case attempting to disqualify ex-President Jacob Zuma from the elections, or any substantiation whatsoever, I do a Nostradamus and predict the South African election outcome.
MY FAKE SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTION RESULTS 2024
ANC 42%
DA 19.8%
EFF 13.5%
MK 10%
IFP 4%
FF+ 2.5%
ActionSA 2%
ASA 1%
BOSA 1%
ACDP 0.6%
PA 0.6%
AIC 0.5%
GOOD 0.5%
COPE 0.2%
Rise Mzansi 0.2%
Al Jama-ah 0.2%
ATM 0.2%
Others 1.2%
ELECTION CYNICISM
Oppenheimer Boys
I consider it deliberate that DA-friendly ‘journalists’ have mostly dropped BOSA and Rise Mzansi from positive (or any) media attention, but that’s just internal positioning. I expect to see their respective leaders, Mmusi Maimane and Songezo Zibi, elected to Parliament.
We won’t see ex-President Jacob Zuma (MK) sitting on those boring benches, but he has a shot at his aim for us to not see Ramaphosa there either.
MK will make an impressive debut, but I’d be surprised if it’s as high as the pollsters who hate him say it will be e.g., how can MK do better than the EFF which is an established party with many known faces (and not only one).
Thus, I think the EFF will also do better than what surveys tell us.
Die Boere en Hulle Engelse Ondersteuners
The pollsters have also been unkind to the Freedom Front Plus a.k.a. Vryheidsfront Plus (VVF+).
Social Research Foundation gave them 2%, ENCA/Markdata only 0.6%, and the Brenthurst Foundation never featured them. The fluctuation is suspicious, and I wonder if it has anything to do with the fear that the DA will lose its majority in the province/state of the Western Cape, and that a stronger VVF+ would demand more as a possible coalition partner.
I’ve got a personal gripe with the VVF+. Many years ago, they actively sought me out, said they were shocked at what the DA had done, promised to help me, but then gave DA corruption a free ride. Now they’re in coalition in several local governments - politics is the same in English, Zulu, Xhosa and Afrikaans.
The VVF+’s support for Israel, and stand against Russia, has probably got more to do with white and Christian bias than fact. But I don’t think it’s fair that black critics slam them as if they’re the reincarnation of Apartheid’s National Party.
When I watch frontman Corné Mulder on the news, he’s the only politician to reliably be calm, factual and informative. It’s unsurprising that politicians across the aisle have come to consider him a voice of local reason.
Consequently, before I conclude, I encourage you to listen to Corné Mulder being interviewed by Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.
ARE YOU FOR SALE?
Politics is for sale, and this was ‘my turn to sell you a future’.
I know my fellow countrymen are hesitant to comment, but I’d love you to also share your guesses and opinions. Pretend this is our country! And then be as brave as I will probably be wrong :)
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REMEMBER TO ALSO READ
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PS: I used the word “but” 10 times - that’s election prediction.
Is this the final results analysis or will you update it a couple weeks out. Trying to keep up with the latest odds.
As one of those overseas readers, I especially appreciated your Hot South African Knives. That's one hell of a primer on South Africa for the uninitiated.
If all your predictions come true I will preach you as the next Messiah. Or at least the next Nostradamus...