Russia/Ukraine Update: 19 Dec 2023
Finland allows USA access to its military bases, diamond sanctions, oil laundromats, war analysis, the Atlantic Council, and more...
RUSSIA
Finland has signed a deal that “will provide the USA with access to 15 military bases.” History shows that giving away sovereignty has consequences. And Finland has closed it border to Russia again.
The European Union’s (EU) long intention to ban Russian diamonds is happening. The delay was because the city of Antwerp in Belgium cuts 90 percent of the world’s rough diamonds. It’ll be interesting to see how they cope, and what alternative plans Russia’s made. The big winner may be the South African-British corporation, De Beers Diamond Consortium.
“From its inception in 1888 until the start of the 21st century, De Beers controlled 80% to 85% of rough diamond distribution and was considered a monopoly. As of 2000, the company's control of the world diamond supply decreased to 63%. The company was founded in 1888 by British businessman Cecil Rhodes, who was financed by the South African diamond magnate Alfred Beit and the London-based N M Rothschild & Sons bank. In 1926, Ernest Oppenheimer, a German immigrant to Britain and later South Africa who had earlier founded mining company Anglo American with American financier J. P. Morgan, was elected to the board of De Beers. He built and consolidated the company's global monopoly over the diamond industry until his death in 1957. During this time, he was involved in a number of controversies, including price fixing and trust behaviour, and was accused of not releasing industrial diamonds for the U.S. war effort during World War II. In 2011, Anglo American took control of De Beers after buying the Oppenheimers' family stake of 40% for US$5.1 billion.” - Wikipedia
BNE IntelliNews digs into why the sanctions against Russian oil have failed, an offshore slush fund estimated at $140bn, and the crucial role of “laundromat countries”.
A good follow-on is Bloomberg’s investigation into Russia’s shadow fleet switching oil in the Mediterranean Sea [below].
Iran said that it’s “ready to expand cooperation with friendly countries, including Russia, in exchanging technologies and equipment produced in the gas sector."
PetroSA, a South African State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) is going to try kickstart it’s refinery by partnering with a Russian bank.
Why is Vladimir Putin so popular, and why do most Russians genuinely support the war in Ukraine? Alexander Hill, a Canadian Professor of Military History, explains with many reasons ranging from Western bungling to concern for the human rights of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine.
Unfriendly news for Putinists is that "Russia’s friendliest bank will help BRICS implement the 'climate agenda'." The Off-Guardian describes the situation as "the conferencegoers in unanimous agreement that renewable energy scams are very good and carbon is very, very bad." Substacker Edward Slavsquat has been warning of the Russia/WEF partnership for a long time.
This is an extract from an interview with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov:
Ukraine has never been of independent value to the Americans, neither before nor after the start of the special military operation. It is a means of suppressing the trend of Russia's international rise, countering the strengthening of our international positions and the development of our economy… If there had been no Ukraine, they would have come up with something else… the question is whether the current crisis will be able to accelerate the formation of a multipolar world, where the historical West will occupy a solid, significant, but still limited place, or whether this historical "collective West" will be able to temporarily prolong the illusion of its own domination in international affairs through the blood of other peoples…
A lot has changed since February 2022. We can see what happened to the Ukrainian so-called "counteroffensive" advertised in the West. New regions are steadily and irreversibly entering our socio-political and state fabric, as well as the structure of our society. Many other things have also changed, so the starting point for a solution sometime in the future will be very different than before. And we will not make concessions. The special military operation will end in complete success, and the goals set for it will be achieved…
More of a figure of speech than evidence that [Trump] has a [peace] plan that is effective and workable. Trump far surpassed his predecessor Obama in the number of waves of sanctions that were applied to Russia during his period.”
Hopefully that will encourage you to read the full interview which is reposted on Karl Sanchez’s substack.
UKRAINE
Ukraine’s economy also has good news though a potential disaster looms. Its inflation has dropped to 5.1% which has allowed the Central Bank to cut rates to 15%. However, the only way its massive 2024 deficit will be covered is if it receives funding from the EU and USA.
Zelensky’s rush to the USA last week, to secure $61.4bn, failed. Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives, stated, “What the Biden administration seems to be asking for is billions of additional dollars with no appropriate oversight, no clear strategy to win and with none of the answers that I think the American people are owed.” That’s cheap politics ahead of next year’s elections because the same reasons weren’t used when they were sending money.
Undoubtedly, the Democrats will try find a way to support Ukraine but it will be up to the European Union (EU) to accept responsibility for its backyard. That never happened on the weekend when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban blocked $54bn in EU funding to Ukraine.
If Ukraine fails to get enough money, it’ll have to print more which will inevitable make inflation soar again.
Off mainstream, there have been multiple reports that Ukraine’s frontline troops are already ill-equipped and hungry. Temperatures may be in the minus, but that cold will deepen the next two months. It’s especially a struggle for the 40,000 women in the misogynistic army. Not to ignore the suffering of the men, because war is evil to all, there are some on rotation alleviating their stress with horses.
THE COLD WAR
Ukraine may not have gotten the EU’s money but it’s now in official talks to become a member. This is more politics than logic because it never happened before the war, and now its poor economy and extremely corrupt government are worse off. Not to mention that a lot of ‘aid’ was loans that Ukraine will unlikely be able to pay.
The Public is wiser than the EU, as expressed in:
"A recent opinion poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found wildly differing majorities in favour of an expansion to include Ukraine – and even in Denmark and Poland, among Ukraine’s most ardent supporters, approval didn’t surpass 50 percent."
The EU is doubling down on poking the Bear, because its also opened talks with Moldova and Georgia.
RUSSIAN DEFENCE REPORT
In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled ten attacks of assault groups of AFU 21st, 115th mechanised, 95th air assault brigades near Sinkovka, Liman Perviy, and Terny (Kharkov region). AFU losses were more than 60 Ukranian troops, one German-made Leopard-2 tank, three infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured personnel carriers, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces' units supported by artillery repelled one attack of the AFU 12th Azov Special Forces Brigade south-eastern of Kuzmino (Lugansk People's Republic). The enemy's losses amounted to up to 220 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, one tank, three armoured personnel carriers, five motor vehicles, as well as one Slovakian-made Zuzana 2 self-propelled artillery system.
In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by artillery and heavy flamethrower systems repelled nine attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 24th, 28th mechanised, 79th air assault, 81st airmobile brigades close to Kurdyumovka, Belogorovka, Leninskoye, Shumy, and Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic). In addition, aviation and artillery launched strikes at AFU manpower and hardware near Kleshcheyevka and Andreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 190 Ukrainian personnel, five infantry fighting vehicles, including one Bradley, and two motor vehicles. In the course of the counter-battery warfare, two Msta-B howitzers, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, and three D-30 howitzers were eliminated.
In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces supported by Operational-Tactical aircraft, helicopters, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled four attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 79th Air Assault Brigade near Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy's losses amounted to 90 troops, three pickups, as well as one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
In Zaporozhye direction, two attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 117th Mechanised Brigade near Novoprokopovka (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by the Russian Group of Forces, air strikes, and artillery fire. Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower pf AFU 33rd, 65th mechanised, 128th mountain assault brigades near Rabotino, Zherebyanka, and Nesteryanka (Zaporozhye region). The enemy's losses amounted to 30 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, as well as one D-30 howitzer.
In Kherson direction, as a result of actions of the Russian Group of Forces supported by artillery and aviation, the AFU lost up to 50 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded and three motor vehicles. In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin, one Polish-made Krab, and one Msta-B howitzer were destroyed.
Operational-tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed one command and observation post of the AFU 1st Operational Brigade of National Guard near Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic), as well as manpower and military hardware in 113 areas.
Air defence systems shot down 25 unmanned aerial vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Topolevka, Verkhnekamenka (Lugansk People's Republic), Gorlovka, Berestovoye, Spornoye (Donetsk People's Republic), Alyoshki (Kherson region), as well as two U.S.-made HIMARS MLRS projectiles.
In total, 553 airplanes and 259 helicopters, 9,861 unmanned aerial vehicles, 442 air defence missile systems, 14,165 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,189 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,382 field artillery guns and mortars, as well as 16,437 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
MILITARY ANALYSIS
NEWS VIDEOS
In the first video, its interesting that its a member of The Atlantic Council discussing weapons on Bloomberg and visiting the military in Kyiv. Before you watch it, read about another, Mary McCord: Deep-State She-Devil?
DOCUMENTARY
FUN IN MOSCOW
NEWS LINKS
Resolution in US Congress calls for end to Assange case as extradition nears
How U.S. Intelligence Agencies have elevated cybercrime in Ukraine into a freedom-fighting cult
Balance of power in South Caucasus still shifting after Karabakh collapse
Attempts to disavow Russian-Azerbaijani-Armenian agreements seen as dangerous
Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria to sign agreement on mine clearance in the Black Sea
'Year-End Recap with Vladimir Putin' captures 63.1% of TV audience
Putin has said in a couple of his speeches that he got played by the West. I'm sure he would like quicker results but I think he's realized that by taking the approach he has, he's setting himself up for success. They've amasses quite a force already but unlike Ukraine they haven't had to throw conscripts at the front. This has been underway almost a year now and I expect those troops will be moved to the front as the manufacturing builds the weapons to equip them. I read somewhere that they are building to a force of 2.2 million. It will be interesting to see if they can keep driving their economy to support having a military of that size. The one thing that all these issues have combined to give Russia an edge in that a lot of the big players have degraded their own armories to pump up Zaleskyy. Meanwhile I expect China is cranking out product themselves while using Russia v Ukraine as a testing ground for weaponry.
Regarding US politics it sucks that we're likely to be stuck with a Trump vs Biden scenario. I personally would like to take the hardcore followers of both, put them in a stadium for 24 hours and deal with what's left at the end of that time.
DeBeers is a name I haven’t heard in awhile. That used to be the pinnacle of the diamond business. I expect Russia will adjust and Antwerp will suffer. Another bullet in the EU’s foot as they wildly try to hit the Russian target. This is akin to a Road Runner/WileECoyote episode.
A lot of commentators are showing frustration with the slow pace of the Russian strategy in Ukraine. I think when you examine it it’s a devastating grinding away at the will. No doubt Ukraine was the best army in Europe at the start of this. It still probably compares favorably to anything else Europe could muster. Unfortunately if this continues much longer Ukraine won’t exist as anyone would currently remember it. Sad, really.
Who’s up next? Finland, Poland. Lessons are never learned.