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Daniel Helkenn's avatar

DeBeers is a name I haven’t heard in awhile. That used to be the pinnacle of the diamond business. I expect Russia will adjust and Antwerp will suffer. Another bullet in the EU’s foot as they wildly try to hit the Russian target. This is akin to a Road Runner/WileECoyote episode.

A lot of commentators are showing frustration with the slow pace of the Russian strategy in Ukraine. I think when you examine it it’s a devastating grinding away at the will. No doubt Ukraine was the best army in Europe at the start of this. It still probably compares favorably to anything else Europe could muster. Unfortunately if this continues much longer Ukraine won’t exist as anyone would currently remember it. Sad, really.

Who’s up next? Finland, Poland. Lessons are never learned.

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Mike Hampton's avatar

De Beers still has the majority share in world trade. Began with Cecil Rhodes who wanted to conquer Africa. Became the Oppenheimer family business but, after maybe 80 years, their majority share was bought by Anglo American (which, ironically, Oppenheimer founded with a loan from JP Morgan). They made billions during apartheid, and then thanked South Africa by moving the majority of the money to the London Stock Exchange. One of Oppenheimer's sons has opened an "NGO/think tank' under a different name, and appears to be trying to influence politics with the liberal politicians, and is now reaching into other parts of Africa too.

Too many Russian commentators are Americans who choose an extreme position as they've done in their own country. Trump isn't a Messiah, just another self-serving politician like Joe Biden. Putin is right but he isn't an infallible God or the political version of Andrew Tait (who also isn't important). I mention these names because it feels like there's too much Marine-like "hoo-rah".

Putin did the right thing in the beginning in trying to save lives by pressurising Zelensky into Minsk v3. However, it was also a mistake because he underestimated the US/UK's effort to squash it. In the real world, one can be right and wrong.

In the present, he's effectively grinding down Ukraine but that doesn't mean he's not boiling that Ugledar hasn't been taken, or that its costing many Russian lives in Avdeevka. But, unlike his commentators, he's a realist.

And let's not forget that he's fighting a war against 29 countries (USA, UK, EU), and indirectly many others give Ukraine non-military supplies.

The likely unexpected benefit of the longer war is it becoming a better tool towards sovereignty.

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Daniel Helkenn's avatar

Putin has said in a couple of his speeches that he got played by the West. I'm sure he would like quicker results but I think he's realized that by taking the approach he has, he's setting himself up for success. They've amasses quite a force already but unlike Ukraine they haven't had to throw conscripts at the front. This has been underway almost a year now and I expect those troops will be moved to the front as the manufacturing builds the weapons to equip them. I read somewhere that they are building to a force of 2.2 million. It will be interesting to see if they can keep driving their economy to support having a military of that size. The one thing that all these issues have combined to give Russia an edge in that a lot of the big players have degraded their own armories to pump up Zaleskyy. Meanwhile I expect China is cranking out product themselves while using Russia v Ukraine as a testing ground for weaponry.

Regarding US politics it sucks that we're likely to be stuck with a Trump vs Biden scenario. I personally would like to take the hardcore followers of both, put them in a stadium for 24 hours and deal with what's left at the end of that time.

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Mike Hampton's avatar

I agree with all except China testing weapons, but the whole affair is a test.

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Mike Hampton's avatar

I'm curious if Russia is purchasing Huawei's latest chip, and if it can be made at scale (which the USA said they couldn't).

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Daniel Helkenn's avatar

I would expect there’s a lot of technology being passed back and forth. I think Russia is underestimated in the technology area. Probably not quite where China is. However the term “Russian hacker” is not without reason. China, Iran and North Korea have made great strides in that area. Germany used to be up there but I don’t know what happened to them. The US has completely emasculated that country.

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Mike Hampton's avatar

They have skills but they need more than that. I don't believe Russia will boast about all technological breakthrough (unless it involves missiles) but, for example, we've yet to see the equivalent of a Huawei phone. I'm sure they're working their arses off. Putin doesn't want to be beholden to China.

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