Russia/Ukraine Update: 24 Jan 2024 (Avdeevka is falling, the West is mauling democracy)

War, politics and Substack! The web is dead and we’re all going to die!

There’s a lot of fascinating info in here. And it’s important. Hoping you bookmark and spend the week going through it. Thanks.

I can’t tell you about Russia and Ukraine if Substack is destroyed. You’d be forced to read mainstream media (MSM) and be destroyed yourself. Consequently, I begin my newsletter differently.

Is Substack being bombed, or is Substack dropping bombs? I've read several reaction posts to the latest controversy, and Peter Davis’ is the one I liked the most. Peter never began by playing Iron Maiden's 'Run to the Hills', but instead put his dick in the middle of the balls. He also shared great links. After you love that, you’ll want to read his companion piece.

My context view is that nothing lasts forever, and betrayal is inevitable. My immediate issue is that Substack only pays writers from a minority of countries. That YOU promised me enough to cover 4-5 months of food is beautiful, especially since I’ve got no income, but I can’t access it. Substack pretending freedom whilst financially excluding most of the world sucks. They’re making me feel like Pornhub.

Oh, well, that’s the Stripe era we live in, so all we can do is keep living. Let others set their hair on fire whilst we write to educate and share ourselves. When we can’t, we’ll read a book, or drink coffee with bare feet on the grass whilst the sun promises to rise as it did before social media, before religion, before we realised we were, before sharks and crocodiles, before stardust, before a very big but confusingly silent bang…

If you’re not into “what will be will be” (which wasn’t sung by The Beatles), then pay attention to the plan I have to save us (which I posted in Notes). Well, to save me and only 150 of you (so you’d better be nice, clever, and sexy). Read it, and then vote below as if you never read it.

Let’s get back to us killing ourselves with flamethrowers and ballistic missiles…

BREAKING NEWS

• Russia’s Il-76 plane with 65 Ukrainian POWs on board crashes in Belgorod Region — Tass

THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS

This is Krynki. You’ve probably seen this short video of devastation but watch it again. Then add -20°C ( -4°F) to the mood. Don’t rush to click something else. Push pause and imagine being a cashier or an accountant fighting there. Thankfully, for those who stood next in the meatgrinder queue, Krynki has fallen. The Ukrainian foothold on the Crimean side of the Dnieper River is gone, along with an enormous amount of artillery on the other bank. You’ll find many dead Russians, and then multiply that to count dead Ukrainians. Was it worth it? Just so Zelensky could tell the USA, “We’re on the way to Crimea”, and the USA, knowing but needing the lie of that one kilometre, could repeat it to the Mainstream Media (MSM) who also knew the lie but would tell it as truth to Americans wanting to feed their exceptionalism and ‘exceptional charity.’ “Sure, it was worth it,” says Victoria Nuland. “Now let’s do it again, maybe at Robotyne (before it also falls).”

Avdeevka is witnessing a major advance by the Russians. They’ve overcome two Ukrainian strongholds in the southern part of the city. How they did it is sensational, but I’ll let Dima tell you about it in the Military Analysis section of this newsletter. Putin will hope for victory before elections but it may take longer as the Ukrainians have been entrenching their positions their since 2014 (when the war began). The next Russian target will be the southern hill hosting the Zenit nuclear bunker complex. No need to take them on directly, just cut off their ammo supply and force a surrender. Expect a major Ukrainian counterattack from the north to try stop that happening.

Avdeevka may prove to be more important than Bakhmut and Mariupol. When it eventually falls, I expect Ukrainian troop morale to plummet across the frontline, and further infect those in the backline who are avoiding conscription. The price paid by major losses on both sides will be worth it if it becomes a step closer to ending the war. It will make it harder for the Ukrainians to continue randomly casting missiles at civilians in Donetsk city (15km away). Russia will likely make Avdeevka their logistics hub towards securing the rest of the province.

If you had to choose one Lavrov interview from the past year, THIS IS IT. Unsurprisingly, CBS has only posted video snippets that don’t make up the whole, nor show how embarrassing CBS ‘journalism’ is.

Marianne Williamson is running for President, and challenging Biden. We probably never heard of her because she’s calling for a Gaza ceasefire and the erection of a U.S. Department of Peace. The latter is iffy considering she believes there should be diplomacy with Russia but that Putin is the boogeyman (her country created). However, it’s notable that Biden isn’t debating her and the following maybe explains it. When asked why she’s running as a Democrat considering how different her agenda is to the party’s elite, she responded:

“I don't diverge from the traditional values of the Democratic Party. They do. I'm a Roosevelt Democrat. I believe that the policies of the U.S. Government should be used to help people. That Democrat elite establishment you just referred to look at someone like myself or any progressive as though we're trying to hijack the party. In fact, they hijacked the party. We're Franklin and Eleonore. They're the Du Pont's, and Whitney's, and Morgan's - they're a bunch of economic royalists."

I interrupt this broadcast for rare good news: ‘C.J. Hopkins Acquitted in Berlin’.

What's happening in Africa will affect the world. But since Africans have never mattered to the West except to abuse, the West isn’t ringing the alarm bell. France, as its black empire collapses, is going to be flooded with immigrants. Let's hope that the Chinese and Russians do a better job below the Sahara. More than that, let's hope that African leaders with guns stop putting bribes before nationhood, men before women, and soldiers before childhood. Read ‘A Continent on the Brink: Why Chaos in the Sahel Could Change Africa Forever’. Thereafter, check out Karen Gordo’s ‘Sudan ... Balancing on a Knife’.

Yaw published an informative post about the Stan countries in central Asia. It’s a solid introduction, so please appreciate it. That made me think about hidden worlds within those hidden world’s. I’m speaking of exclaves, something I never knew existed for most of my life. To understand what I mean, check out Bald’s adventure to Sokh, an Uzbek exclave surrounded by Kyrgyzstan.

RUSSIAN DEFENCE REPORT

Winter has not slowed the Russians. Ukraine is back to major daily losses.

In the morning, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a group strike by high-precision long-range air- and ground- based weapons at Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities producing missiles and its parts, ammunition, and explosives. The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.

In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery repelled six attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 32nd, 66th, and 81st mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Tabayevka (Kharkov region), and Makeyevka (Lugansk People's Republic). The AFU losses amounted to up to 45 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by artillery improved the tactical situation along the front lines.

Over the past 24 hours, four attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 63rd Mechanised Brigade and 5th Ukrainian National Guard Brigade were repelled near Yampolovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic), and Serebryansky forestry. The AFU losses amounted to more than 220 Ukrainian troops, one tank, four motor vehicles, and two D-20 howitzers.

In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 28th, 58th, and 93rd mechanised brigades, 81st Airmobile Brigade, and 5th Assault Brigade near Kurdyumovka, Grigorovka, and Andreyevka (Donetsk People's Republic). The AFU losses amounted to more than 280 Ukrainian troops killed and wounded, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, one D-30 howitzer, and one Anklav-N electronic warfare station.

In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces inflicted losses on units of the AFU 79th Air Assault Brigade near Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The AFU losses amounted to more than 105 Ukrainian troops, seven motor vehicles, and one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system.

In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 65th, 118th mechanised brigades, and 128th Mountain Assault Brigade near Rabotino, Nesteryanka, and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region). The AFU losses amounted to up to 55 Ukrainian troops, one tank, three pickup trucks, and one D-30 howitzer.

In Kherson direction, as a result of complex strikes at AFU units on the right bank of the Dnepr River, the AFU losses amounted to up to 50 Ukrainian troops, two motor vehicles, and two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.

Operational-Tactical aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out one AFU Liman operational-tactical unit command post, as well as engaged manpower and hardware in 147 areas during the day.

Air defence units shot down 56 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles close to Kuzemovka, Nyrkovo, Verkhnekamenka (Lugansk People's Republic), Belogorovka, Kleshcheyevka, Terni, Maryinka (Donetsk People's Republic), Grozovoye (Zaporozhye region), Vinogradnoye (Kherson region), as well as intercepted one HIMARS MLRS projectile.

In total, 568 airplanes and 265 helicopters, 11,089 unmanned aerial vehicles, 451 air defence missile systems, 14,743 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,205 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 7,830 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 17,751 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

MILITARY & GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS

Europe Prepares for War with Russia? [i]

War Reports - 2024-01-23

HOT WAR LINKS

The above is a must-watch propaganda video for war (which would affect everyone from me in the Global South to you in California. Watch in the context that the Media narrative has quickly switched from “Ukraine is winning” to “stalemate” to “WW3”.

France, Poland, Lithuania and the UK are entering military deals with Ukraine. Are they offering as much in reality as they are in the Media? Are they weakening NATO by going behind its back because their fellow members aren’t as war hungry, neoliberal or American? It’s unsurprising that Lavrov labelled those ‘peace’ ducks as ‘war’ ducks at the latest UN Security Council meeting.

These contradictory links will explain:

• Europe prepares for War with Russia? Yes and no.

• Polish PM Donald Tusk pledges unity, end to border blockade during Kyiv visit

• Lithuanian and Polish presidents discuss Ukraine and expanding military cooperation

• Lithuania broke human rights laws in case tied to CIA detention program, European court rules

• Ukrainians criticize historic UK security agreement as weak, but encouraging

• France to give Ukraine more cruise missiles, plans security pact

• Macron to ‘finalize security deal’ during Ukraine visit

• These Are France’s ‘Hammer’ Rocket-Assisted Bombs Ukraine’s Getting

• Russia says targeted French mercenaries in long-range strike in Ukraine

• The Atlantic Council promotes war escalation

• Don't let anyone tell you that the war machine is starved — it's close to a trillion dollar payday

• Turkey’s parliament approves Sweden’s NATO membership

• Belgium agrees €611 million in military aid for Ukraine, taken from the interest on frozen Russian assets

• Russia turns to old Soviet treaty to unfreeze funds in Belgium

• EU unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets

• Putin to the West: Take your rules an' shove 'em!

• Lavrov dismisses any Ukrainian peace plan supported by Kyiv and the West at a fiery United Nations Security Council meeting

• Slovak PM: Ukraine must give up territory to end Russian invasion

And:

• Gonzalo Lira's torturers were allegedly trying to extort $500,000 from him, and killed him after he told his lawyer

• Ukrainian military experimenting with psychedelic drug Ibogaine

• Former Ukrainian presidential advisor Oleksiy Arestovych flees into exile, to challenge Zelenskiy for presidency

• Former Presidential Spokesman Arestovich speaks of peace and a multinational Ukraine

• Rats and mice swarm trenches in Ukraine

• Larry Johnson: A Plea to End the War in Ukraine

• Russian forces carry out group strike on Ukraine’s ammunition production facilities

• Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil depot causes massive blaze

• Why is the steel oligarch Vladimir Lisin selling out?

• Edward Slavsquat’s weekly news from Russia

RISK TO E.U. NEOLIBERALS

• AfD leader vows to campaign for Brexit-style EU exit vote in Germany

• Anti-European’ populists on track for big gains in EU elections, says report

• Trump allies plot to take over the European Union [jump past the intro]

• Slovakian PM backs Hungary's veto on EU aid to Ukraine

WORLD LINKS

Africa:

• U.S. planning new drone bases in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin

• Four conclusions about the war in Sudan

• The UAE Must Stop Sponsoring the RSF Militia in Sudan

• Tigray was literally destroyed by the U.S., says former Ethiopian diplomat

Asia:

• Maldives admits Chinese ship, inflaming dispute with India

• China, Nauru formally resume diplomatic relations

Europe:

• Macron does a Putin, ends up shooting own foot

• Pashinyan: Armenia-Belgium close cooperation contributes to development of Armenia-EU

Middle East:

• Hamas: ‘Our Narrative … Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’ !

• Cairo warns Israel against seizing Philadelphi Corridor

• Russian air patrols along the Bravo line dividing the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel

• Netanyahu's lawlessness * Evidence of a dispute * Hannibal Directive

• Decoding Iran’s missile/drone strikes

• US launches more airstrikes in Iraq as tensions soar

• New chapter in Russia-Egypt relations

• New Zealand to send “defence team” to support Red Sea security

• For those who need videos for their family argument that Israel’s murdering Palestinians

South America:

• China widens South America trade highway with Silk Road mega port

• Javier Milei’s sickening cheerleading capitalism speech to the WEF at Davos

• Navigating Troubled Waters: The Impact of Drought, Geopolitics, and Global Trade Disruptions on the Panama Canal

• New data on conflict in Colombia paints an uncertain pictures

• Latin America Risk Report's weekly news update

The West:

• Oscars: The dumb serial killers of the Rules Based Order

• 5 richest billionaires increased their wealth by 114% in 3 years

• Interrogating “Multipolarity”: A response to “Understanding Power Dynamics”

NEWS VIDEOS

INTERVIEWS

“BBC Arabic has secured the first on-camera interviews with US mercenaries from Spear Operations Group, hired by the UAE for targeted killings in Yemen. These mercenaries openly discussed their deadly operations with the BBC.”

Mearsheimer, as previously declared, is one of my favourites. He became too popular and thus too repetitive for me to watch all his videos the past year, but here he’s imagining the future of Ukraine.

The Grayzone heads to the source like few would. They interview the Houthi’s spokesman, Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti.

You all know the Judge and Larry.

Eva Bartlett made her name when reporting from Syria and the Donbas. Since she’s been tarred and feathered by MSM, we should hear words from her tongue - UK Column: Gutsy Women – Eva Bartlett.

I haven’t forgiven Glenn Greenwald for reinventing himself through propagandist Alex Jones but the ‘fate’ and impact of Edward Snowden, maybe the most important whistleblower, remains close to my heart. And that it’s anti-war activist Scott Horton interviewing Greenwald is a major bonus.

Ben Norton, from Geopolitical Economy Report, discusses the billionaires taking over our world.

SOMETHING I MISSED

DOCUMENTARY

FINAL THOUGHT

I was on the excellent Black Mountain Analysis this morning, where I commented that:

War sucks! I despise those on Substack who choose a side like they're a cheerleader in a miniskirt. Rather be the guy at the bottom looking up the skirt, choosing to drop this human house of cards.

The EU will be more conservative in November. That will have an effect on this war. As will the U.S. election the same month. Consequently, Victoria Nuland and company will make the next 10 months hell. Action = reaction = Putin has to escalate.

Poor Ukrainians. And poor Russians, cause they've been dying quicker too.

In between, I hope that pressure on Ukraine will expose political infighting and opportunism. That's the least violent way to kill Western propaganda AND kill less people (that they think are less than them, and consequently don’t matter).