South Africa's Election: Halfway There

The scientists and mathematicians can now tell us the result.

52% of the South African vote counted.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) are not pollsters. They uses a mathematical model to estimate outcomes once 5% of the vote is in. Consequently, with the halfway mark breached, they have a lot to work with.

They’re stating this outcome (smaller parties excluded):

NATIONAL

1. ANC 40.4%

2. DA 21.7%

3. MK 14.6%

4. EFF 9.3%

5. PA 2%

PROVINCES

There are 9 provinces but I’m only listing the 3 most important - Western Cape (includes Cape Town), KwaZulu-Natal (includes Durban), and Gauteng (includes Johannesburg and Pretoria). I’ll include in all when there’s a final result.

KWAZULU-NATAL PROVINCE

1. MK 44.8%

2. ANC 17.9%

3. IFP 17.5%

4. DA 13.6%

5. EFF 2.3%

WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE

1. DA 54.4%

2. ANC 19.8%

3. PA 7.8%

4. EFF 5.1%

5. CCC 2.9%

GAUTENG PROVINCE

1. ANC 34.7%

2. DA 27.2%

3. EFF 12.8%

4. MK 10.1%

5. ActionSA 3.9%

BIGGEST TAKEAWAYS

Ex-President Jacob Zuma’s return to politics is a tsunami. It’s exceptional that a new party, his uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), grabs such a large share of the vote.

The ANC is clearly the biggest loser, dropping 22% since the last election in 2019. They can only stabilise if they coalition with MK.

The DA, the official opposition party, is doing better than I expected because their splinter parties (ActionSA, BOSA and Rise Mzanzi) haven’t. The DA may gain 1% which puts them in the middle of their 2014 and 2019 performances. They’re not arrested, but in a rut.

The DA will retain a majority in their stronghold, the province of the Western Cape. However, the upstart Patriotic Alliance (PA) is heading to 7.8%, whilst the Cape Coloured Congress (CCC) should slightly improve to 2.9%. This will result in them upsetting politics in the City of Cape Town and in smaller towns in the Karoo and Garden Route. The secessionists, as represented by the Referendum Party, are having an awful time.

Coalition politics is going to be vicious! Expect great drama before a government is formed.

UPDATE