Syrian playdough

How many violent hands does it take to overthrow a violent country, quickly and with minimal violence?

The Syrian situation is too complicated for me to figure out. There’s a lot of playdough there.

It’s easy to say that CIA and Mossad hands are involved, but they’re good at starting games they don’t win the way they wanted too.

The only way it seems possible for the Syrian government to have fallen so quickly, with so few casualties, is if there was also a deal between Turkey, Iran and Russia.

The biggest winner is Turkey. It has gained territory, has a chance at getting rid of millions of Syrian refugees, and has strategically damaged the Kurds who cannot rely on the USA to remain their backer now that Assad is gone and Turkey has new leverage within NATO.

Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s leader, played both sides as has always been his nature, amplified since the West/East War began in Ukraine. TASS reports that he recently stated:

"Now, there are only two [experienced] leaders in the world. They are myself and Vladimir Putin. I am not saying this because one of them is me. But I have been in office for 22 years, nearly as long as Mr. Putin. The rest are gone. And we want our dialogue to continue. It is important to continue politics. For instance, politics ended in Germany when [Chancellor] Angela Merkel resigned."

Iran’s role and loss is notable, so it’s interesting that Shia religious sites, so far, have been left alone by the upsurpers who are mostly Salafi Sunni. As Russia has chosen to focus on Ukraine, Iran may not want distraction from its tricky maneuvering with the USA and Israel. However, this disadvantages Lebanon’s Hezbollah which has lost a route, via Syria, to Iran.

Ex-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family are allegedly in Russia. According to Reuters, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that:

“As a result of negotiations between B. Assad and a number of participants in the armed conflict on the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic, he decided to resign from the presidency and left the country, giving instructions for a peaceful transfer of power… We urge all parties involved to refrain from the use of violence and to resolve all issues of governance through political means. In that regard, the Russian Federation is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition.”

Interestingly, Russia claims not to be involved in those “negotiations” but doesn’t state who was.

Despite all this ‘civility’, Syria is as complicated as Libya. With victory, the enemy of my enemy is no longer needed as a friend. Syrian winners will not want to be handled by the West or the East, and they will jostle for positions with each other.

Whatever the outcome, I’m hoping that it’ll be better for the majority of civilians, and allow the 12 million, that were displaced or forced to become refugees, to return home.

MILITARY ANALYSIS

RUSSIAN FOREIGN DEFENCE MINISTRY REPORT ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE, DECEMBER 8 2024

In Kharkov direction, units of the Sever Group of Forces inflicted losses on formations of one territorial defence brigade and one border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine near Tikhoye, Volchansk, and Kazachaya Lopan (Kharkov region). The AFU losses amounted to up to 40 troops, one motor vehicle, and two D-30 howitzers.

Units of the Zapad Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of one tank brigade, one infantry brigade, two mechanised brigades of the AFU and one territorial defence brigade near Monachinovka, Dvurechnaya, Kondrashovka, Petropavlovka, Zagryzovo, Kupyansk (Kharkov region), and Torskoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Eleven counter-attacks launched by AFU assault detachments were repelled.

The AFU losses amounted to more than 460 troops, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, four motor vehicles, one UK-made 155-mm FH-70 howitzer, one 155-mm U.S.-made M198 howitzer, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, two 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, one 120-mm Nona artillery gun, three U.S.-made 105-mm M119 guns, and one 85-mm D-44 gun. Two ammunition depots were wiped out.

Units of the Yug Group of Forces improved the tactical situation and inflicted losses on formations of one tank brigade, three mechanised brigades, one mountain assault brigade, one air assault brigade, two airmobile brigades of the AFU, and one marine brigade near Ulakly, Ostrovskoye, Grigorovka, Verkhnekamenskoye, Privolye, Kurakhovo, Yantarnoye, and Dachnoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Two counter-attacks launched by the enemy's formations were repelled.

The AFU losses amounted to up to 225 troops, one infantry fighting vehicle, two armoured fighting vehicles, one pickup truck, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

Units of the Tsentr Group of Forces continued advancing to the depth of the enemy's defences and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of three mechanised brigades, one infantry brigade, one jaeger brigade, one motorised infantry brigade of the AFU, one marine brigade, and one assault brigade of the National Guard near Dzerzhinsk, Shevchenko, Dimitrov, Tarasovka, and Novotoretskoye (Donetsk People's Republic). Eight counter-attacks launched by AFU armed formations were repelled.

The AFU losses amounted to more than 500 troops, one motor vehicle, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 gun, and two 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

As a result of successful offensive operations, units of the Vostok Group of Forces liberated Blagodatnoye (Sovkhoz Oktyabr, Donetsk People's Republic). Losses were inflicted on formations of one mechanised brigade of the AFU and two territorial defence brigades near Konstantinovka, Vremevka, Neskuchnoye, and Bogatyr (Donetsk People's Republic). Two counter-attacks launched by the enemy's assault detachments were repelled.

The AFU losses amounted to up to 190 troops, two 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery systems, two U.S.-made MaxxPro armoured fighting vehicles, and one U.S.-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled artillery system. One POL depot was destroyed.

Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of two mechanised brigades of the AFU and one territorial defence brigade near Otradokamenka and Antonovka (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 45 troops, nine motor vehicles, one 152-mm D-20 gun, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and three Olkha MLRS launchers.

Operational-Tactical Aviation, attack unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces struck infrastructure of military airfields, power objects ensuring operation of the Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, as well as engaged manpower clusters and military hardware of the enemy in 139 areas.

Air defence units shot down 12 Czech-made Vampire MLRS projectiles and 88 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 649 aircraft, 283 helicopters, 37,468 unmanned aerial vehicles, 586 anti-aircraft missile systems, 19,705 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,500 MLRS combat vehicles, 19,220 field artillery guns and mortars, and 29,096 units of support military vehicles have been neutralised.

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