What Mass Media isn't fire-spotting for you about the USA's proxy war in Ukraine
The war is hotter for Ukraine and Russia, but the woodpile is in Ukraine.
As the American inauguration/revenge fire approaches January 20, the temperature is also increasing between Ukraine and Russia.
WAR NEWS
On Monday night, January 13, Ukraine launched its biggest air attack into Russia. A few fires didn’t make it a bonfire, but the fireworks were meant for Trump.
On the night of the 14th and morning of the 15th, Russia fired 43 missiles from sea and air, many aimed at Western Ukraine. Zelensky stated it was an attack on their energy infrastructure. Many called it retaliation, but I consider it the testing of Ukraine's defensives before the main event. Intimidation, like attrition, is won through escalation.
Over 3 million Russians were without internet porn and comedy for 30-60 minutes on Tuesday. Immediate rumours included Ukrainian sabotage or drone attack when it was actually a failed update to a system used to block access to foreign websites. That’ll be profound if the Kremlin was testing how to isolate the country.
Zelensky and Macron's hope to get French troops into Ukraine will fail with the latter losing grip of his country. Macron could decide that he's got nothing to lose politically (and everything to gain from the private sector), but it would be a disastrous move for Europe.
Poland kept up “Russians eat babies” styled propaganda when Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed that those Slavs are planning a global airline terror campaign, and then insipidly stated "I will not go into details, I can only confirm the validity of fears that Russia was planning acts of air terror, not only against Poland, but against airlines around the world." As expected, newspapers such as The Daily Terrorgraph didn’t treat it as ridiculous.
The UAE mediated a one-for-one prisoner swap on January 15. The good news of 50 Ukrainians and Russians going home is tempered by the many more that will be captured before this month ends.
DEATH FIELDS
From its Sumy Oblast, Ukraine attacked Russia's rural area in Kursk on August 6, 2024. Considering the little benefit it could achieve, I labelled it as an incursion rather than an invasion, and expected them to be kicked out by Orthodox Xmas.
I was right about their effect, but wrong about their presence because that has been maintained by replacing the dead and crippled with the fearful and living. However, the area they occupied has been halved.
Their woes compounded yesterday when the Russians located and destroying their Sumy headquarters during rotation preparation. Without fresh legs, Ukraine's exhausted troops will suffer more losses. Furthermore, there were large explosions so a missile depot was likely hit too.
THE 500KM EASTERN FRONTLINE
Now we head to the long Eastern frontline, starting at the top, and heading down….
Towards Kupyansk, Russia has expanded its foothold on the Ukrainian side of the Oskil River. They’ve captured 3 villages and Boguslav will be next.
Chasiv Yar
If meatgrinders for hills in a flat land are justified, then Chasiv Yar is worth its rivers of blood. Of course, the history of the losers will reflect that differently.
Russia occupies the central and eastern areas.
Fighting for the north-eastern section and industrial west are intense.
Ukrainians are encircled in a forest in the south-east.
It’s testament to Ukraine that they’ve suffered FABs for the duration of a pregnancy. Tragically, their effort will be stillborn. I don’t expect them to last much longer.
Toretsk
Toretsk is another big Russian victory. They have the town, skirmishes continuing whilst they ‘clean’ the Dzerzhinskaya mine and a suburb to its east.
The immediate benefit is they’ve taken over the rail lines, forcing Pischane, a nearby coke coal mine that supports one-third of Ukraine’s steel industry, to close down.
Povrosk
Povrosk is either going to be one of the horrendous battles or anti-climatic. It’s barriers are extensive but would need many soldiers to hold. Will Ukraine sue for peace, withdraw, or do what they normally do which is fight for a losing position?
Every day, the Russians make gains on its outskirts, and this week physically cut the T0406 highway. That reduces supplies to the regional defence i.e., Povrosk is the rail hub supplying the frontline, north and south. Places such as Chasiv Yar depend on it. Without, Ukraine will have to withdraw from large pockets which could eventually lead to a cauldron.
Povrosk is the only city before the border with the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Northwards are the only remaining Ukrainian cities in Donetsk, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. As you can see from the map below, Russia will be able to attack Kramatorsk from three directions. The situation worsens if Russia recaptures Lyman, and advances from the north.
Russia will want to make gains before March/April when ice becomes mud. However, mud doesn’t stop glide bombs, and its target will be within artillery range. Russia’s bigger concern is maintaining the pressure which requires replacing the troops its losing. Inversely, that means thinning Ukrainian rotation which will be especially difficult if the troops from a collapsed Kursk are sent to Povrosk.
Consequently, Russia needs to open a new front line, either into Sumy in the north, or from Kupyansk to the Siverskyi Donets River (which is a natural barrier east of Kharkiv). In the south, they could move towards the city of Zaporizhia, or fake intentions across the Dnipro River into the Ukrainian side of Kherson.
Andriivka
An area receiving little media attention are the farming villages west of the captured city of Kurakhove. An enormous number of soldiers have been dying here for months.
Through great effort, the Russians have created a massive cauldron, but it's less effective with the top of the 'pot', from Andriivka to Shevchenko, being a long line of Ukrainian fortifications.
The Russians will prevail with their current attack from the side, and quicken if they're able to position their artillery in the north (and shoot at the backside of their enemy).
A win will find them only 4km from the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
Velyka Novosilka
Further south, the Ukrainians have put up a helluva fight to hold onto Velyka Novosilka. After being under attack since the start of the war, they're in a cauldron with no direct supply lines.
Although the population was only 5,200, it's well fortified, and the administrative center for a large agricultural district and the Shevchenko lithium deposit. As the white stork flies, it’s 128km to Zaporizhia and 160km to Dnipro. Furthermore, it offers the opportunity to interrupt the H15, the national highway between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, and also part of the route to Dnipro. This will impact Ukrainian logistics.
After the USA overthrew the Ukrainian government and sparked the civil war in 2014, the villagers of Velyka Novosilka, as if seeing their future destruction, bravely rallied for a United Ukraine. Unfortunately, they were occupied by the Donbas Balaclava Battalion which painted the town square's Lenin statue in the colours of the Ukrainian flag and inscribed it with "Glory to Ukraine! and "Putin is a dick!"
Velyka Novosilka is now rubble, and its capture will become one of Russia's biggest victories and a Ukrainian crisis. However, do not expect this to get as much attention as Bloody Bakhmut.
TOWARDS TRUMP
It’s hard for me to imagine this war not being decided on the battlefield. For example, Russia’s stolen $300bn is leverage, but less important than Russia’s future which demands that NATO never exist in Ukraine.
Congruently, the USA wants Europe as its weakened vassal, and an expanded war would accomplish that. Both sides would be distracted whilst the USA focuses on China (and makes money off the Euro war).
Those are possibilities and not news, so let me focus on what’s immediately before us.
As much as Trump throws an uncertainty factor into the proxy war, he can only act as a frontman if bigger forces want to move on from war profiteering to post-war profiteering. He'll not end the war on "Day One", but will probably try slot it into the symbolic "What I accomplished in my first 100 days in office."
Pete Hegseth is Trump's nomineee for Secretary of Defense and is backed by Elon Musk. His crazy confirmation hearing was held by the Senate Armed Services Committee this past Tuesday. I skip the sensationalism and conclude with this extract from his opening speech.
"The President has given me a clear vision, and I will execute... We will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources — and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on 'reputational deterrence' — we need real deterrence... My only special interest is — the warfighter. Deterring wars, and if called upon, winning wars — by ensuring our warriors never enter a fair fight..."
Greenland doesn't possess nuclear weapons, but they hunt whales from kayaks.
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