Where the hell does South Africa go now?
South Africans only get to vote and receive propaganda. We're not invited to backroom deals where politicians trade careers and funders' agendas.
South Africa is in danger. No exaggeration. No click bait. It is!
There is no safe path forward. All that bare feet can do is try avoid some of the broken glass, and hopefully buy gloves by the time barbed wire is reached. Once through, we will have escaped our homes and be standing on a street beneath which the water does not always run, above which electricity does not always flow, and on which the homeless and prostitutes grow.
We will be far from an airport and someone else’s hedge fund. That is when our only options are to hide and hope, or be active South Africans instead of alarmists.
We can prepare for the aftermath of new government by making our lives smaller and getting rid of debt, buying water tanks and tomato seeds, packets of rice and beans in cans, and by turning our dreams into minimalism for the sake of practicality. Our ego will get a boost if we help those less fortunate.
But first we have to face the prospect of people who hate one another forming political partnerships for and against us. That doubles as a good thing because it means that there is no dictatorship, and that it is possible to jump over burning tyres and walk into Woolworths to buy Rainbow Trout Skin Salt & Vinegar Flavoured Crisps for the price of a loaf of bread.
Consequently, I am going to pretend to be the African National Congress (ANC), which has the largest share of the vote (40%), and decide who to form a new government with.
This is not my personal choice, nor do I support the ANC. It is a deal with realism. Even if we get burnt, there is a difference between hot water and lit diesel.
THE WINDS OF FOREIGN FORCES
For more than a decade, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the ‘liberal’ opposition, moaned that the African National Congress (ANC) must be kicked out. It made a pre-election pact with other parties wherein they all promised not to work with the ANC. Now that the ANC has lost its 30-year majority, the DA cries doomsday unless the ANC goes into coalition with the DA.
That’s talking with butt-cheeks, something the DA is best at, but, after reaching for the toilet paper, two issues remain - foreign pressure and local backstabbing for power.
The DA and the Vryheidsfront (VF+), the parties that have their fingers in the past, support the West and free markets with emphasis on the USA, UK, Germany and Israel.
DA splinter groups - ActionSA, Rise Mzanzi and BOSA - successfully captured 2% of mostly black voters that the DA would have lost. The ACDP has traditionally had no mind of its own, and served the DA’s purpose, probably the reason for its decline.
Consequently, the DA and its allies, after some losses but more gains, have 26.5% of the seats in Parliament. That is enough to remain ineffective opposition, or enough to make a deal with the ANC for a share of power.
The DA has the the advantage of most NGOs and Media, of which many are funded by the West, on their side. In that mix are white billionaires supporting the party and its political children. That helps the DA tell their wheeling and dealing story with little criticism.
That narrative is that South Africa will crash without them. Maybe it will.
The USA was intimidating South Africa’s economy before the election, with one reason being South Africa’s case against Israel at the United Nations. Maybe that means that it is more Israel that was menacing us. The DA met up with NATO in Europe, and appealed to the USA to become election observers because of an alleged threat to democracy that never materialised.
Now they're threatening the Rand if the 'liberals' aren't included in Government, whereas the easiest path to a semi-stable government is for the ANC to work with…
OPTIONS
GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY
A Government of National Unity is a coalition formed by all major parties, or even all parties, to address a common emergency such as war or a natural disaster.
It is also used when there is so much political division that it is the only way past government dysfunction, or as a transition from autocratic to democratic rule. The dawn of South Africa’s democracy served as an example, a GNU formed between the ANC, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), and the National Party (which had run the previous Apartheid state).
The problem is that the Tripartite Alliance does not share a common definition of a GNU. The Public and the Media often forget that South Africa is ruled by an alliance that began in 1990, when Nelson Mandela was released from prison. The partners are the ANC, South African Communist Party (SACP), and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU).
It is a mystery to the general Public what role the SACP and COSATU perform in modern times, which is why they are so rarely mentioned. It would have made sense for them to unite as a political party, separate to the ANC, so that their strength was tested as a political counterpoint. Nevertheless, they are in the Media now that coalition bargaining has begun.
Yesterday, June 5, the SACP stated that it would support a GNU so long as the neoliberal DA is excluded. Beyond the fact that it would not be a GNU if the main opposition party was excluded, it creates a serious obstacle to President Ramaphosa’s faction which has long been seen as DA-leaning. That’s compounded by COSATU, the day before, also stating its opposition to the DA’s inclusion.
Ramaphosa is a billionaire capitalist, and thus it is unsurprising that the Media is choking on an abundance of support for him to make a deal with the DA despite him having been Deputy President and President for the socialist ANC since 2014. Ours is a land of contradictions.
BusinessTech, a popular online newszine with middle to upper class readership, is currently running a poll to choose one’s favourite coalition. After 3,000 votes, 81% want it to be ANC/DA. It is an exceptional case of forgetting that the DA was most known for wanting to kick the ANC out of government. Doctors will be handing out sick notes for cognitive dissonance.
There’s no irony in asset managers and economists for corporations issuing the DA’s doomsday warnings. “The Rand will crash” and “capital will take flight if the ANC does not make a deal with the DA”. Those and their like are the only messages Media is delivering.
It’s ignored that the Reserve Bank, for good and evil, is independently owned, and that the ANC is likely to retain the same Minister of Finance. Simply, South Africa is being bullied for shareholder profits and not our better humanity. It is likely that if Capitalism does not get what it wants, it will punish South Africa.
“Is the media being held accountable for its behavior? For example, trying to pressure politicians into particular deals and creating market anxiety?” - Mighti Jamie, at Africa Research Desk
There will be some in the ANC thinking about that, especially those involved in the legal corruption of receiving free ‘black-empowerment’ shares, but it will be extremely difficult for Ramaphosa to overcome those who remember when the CIA supported the Apartheid Government, and Russia was an ally.
THE CONFIDENCE AND SUPPLY AGREEMENT
President Ramaphosa has a history of cowardice, so he will be trying to find a way to make everyone happy, but that runs the risk of making everyone unhappy.
Political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki describes this option:
“One of the non-coalition types of governments that has been touted is the confidence and supply agreement. This is a scenario where parties or members in parliament agree to support the government in motions of confidence and appropriation votes, but are otherwise free to vote in favour of their own policies or on conscience on legislative bills.”
For example, the DA could pretend to be opposition whilst ensuring that the other parties never impeached Ramaphosa. They would also approve his budget bills. They would do this in return for positions, possibly as Chairs of Parliamentary Committees where power is wielded away from the personalities wheeled onto TV for the Public.
The power in the DA is Helen Zille, but the pretend leader is her sidekick, John Steenhuisen. He was asked on TV, “[If] the DA is prepared to serve in a government with individuals implicated in state capture? What is it that you are prepared to compromise on… that this will be too compromising for us?”
“Our approach is zero tolerance to corruption,” Steenhuisen responded, “and that has to be the foundation of any potential coalition government.”
As to be expected from biased Media, Steenhuisen was not questioned about President Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala scandal in which it seems impossible for him to not have been involved in a several crimes. For all the many times the DA cried ‘Phala Phala!”, they are now silent (in the hope of power).
Similarly, the Ramaphosa-led ANC has never held the DA accountable for their crimes, something I have long believed was deliberate in case they one day needed the option of a partner.
COALITION PARTNERS: ANC + EFF + ?
There is bad blood between the factions of President Cyril Ramaphosa and ex-President Jacob Zuma, now the head of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK). It is difficult to believe that they would work together.
The situation in KwaZulu-Natal, the second-biggest province, is complicated and intense.
The ANC was pummeled by MK, dropping 27%. For the ANC to block Zuma, it would need a provincial partnership with the DA, IFP and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). That makes the DA’s original pact with the ACDP and IFP less appealing (especially since the ACDP lost its seat).
If the IFP sides with MK, if the parties of the Zulu tribe unite, then Zuma will have control of the province, the major city of Durban and its port. Undoubtedly, more power would be given to tribal leaders, and there is even the possibility of Zululand taking a step towards secession.
Alternatively, it can be a stale mate, 40 seats each, if the EFF and National Freedom Party (NFP) support MK.
The EFF was expected to grow but MK’s sudden arrival stopped that. Instead, the EFF declined from 10.8% to 9.5%. But in the current situation, there is more opportunity for the EFF than before.
The easiest national coalition deal for the ANC is with the EFF and a smaller party such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA), the IFP, Al Jama-ah etc.
The PA is DA at heart but rejected by Helen Zille. Consequently, they may serve as a counterbalance to the EFF’s desire to expropriate the private land of white folk. The compromise could be reallocating Public land that is not being used.
Julius Malema may have painted himself as a firebrand whose going to take the land, but many of his supporters are now middle class, a status that dims rage. No matter the criminal and racism accusations against him, and his party’s failure to stand against DA corruption, he is one of the country’s sharpest political minds. It is undoubtedly humming on overdrive.
The Malema, after the election results were announced, was the best version of himself. He judged the mood correctly, acted humble, praised the MK for their success, and left himself open to coalition with the ANC (and MK).
It’s unknown whether MK will last with so much internal division, but the safe bet is for Malema to not compete with Zuma for the same right-wing market, to acknowledge that his supporter base has diversified, and instead use an ANC coalition as an opportunity to gain more power than he had before.
The ANC would never give him the Ministry of Finance or Home Affairs, but the Basic Education portfolio would be fitting considering how Malema and other EFF leaders have been publicly admired for gaining degrees in the Public eye. The Sports portfolio could be another option. And then, as the DA would, aim for some of those important Chairs behind the scenes in Parliament.
THE FUTURE AND FEAR
Glass, barbed wire, thorns and thieves are ahead.
There is no plan by any party to fight the corruption that has eaten our future, or to fix our criminal justice system. Consequently, there’s a lazy blame game by our leaders, sometimes to be considered, but mostly unfair.
As a member of the white minority (7%), I am acutely aware of South Africa’s hate politics motivating young black adults of whom half are tragically unemployed. In the immediate firing line are African foreigners who have been labelled as job stealers. But black South Africans, suspected as thieves, are more often killed by vigilante mobs than anyone else.
There is reason to worry, but to repeatedly label it as “doomsday” is more likely to make it true. That is hate politics of a different, more devious kind.
I am against foreign interference from the West or the East, but despise the Russophobia sold by the DA and allied Media. I am no more afraid of Russia than I am of the UK. I am more worried by billionaires and trillionaire hedge funds who have the power to play games with our economy.
I would welcome China to spend a year fixing our infrastructure. For the international public relations they would score, we probably get them at a bargain. We should deal with whoever gives us the best deal. The USA needs to start playing that game, and not the unkind one they are internationally infamous for.
The big fight is going to be for control of local municipalities in 2026. After that assassination season, those in charge will show us if we have a better future ahead of us.
P.S. 'The title of this post was derived from the Lebanese movie ‘Where Do We Go Now?’, a wonderfully comedic handling of a serious situation. The trailer begins with words spoken through public speakers to a village of Christian and Moslem men who always got along until they started watching TV of Christians and Moslems fighting: "All inhabitants of our dear village, we invite you to a meeting about the stupid things you are currently doing." The women keep their heads, and distract the men with strippers and dagga cookies, an approach to sensible politics that we should learn from.
As I see it there are only nuanced differences in some of these parties. Slight differences but enough to keep them from aligning. That always seems to be the case in any country where large numbers of parties are present. That is true here as well. The only difference is the two parties have all these factions fighting for control, but within the main party itself. In reality there is a large segment of both parties that once elected unite to control the legislative process. That sounds like what will probably happen with SA. This was an interesting dive into the nuts and bolts of the process there.
Grim. Thanks for letting us know.
I wonder if the most appropriate response to propaganda -- when the same news is evident everywhere -- is to realize that big money is behind it and take the opposite stance.